Cbet? Turnbet?

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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to those checking the turn:
do you call a river bet if blank falls?

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If I did check the turn in this spot I would call a blank river getting 6ish to 1, but I have no idea if it's a profitable call in this spot. It "feels" like a profitable call so thats what I would do.

[yourface]

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to those checking the turn:
do you call a river bet if blank falls?

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yea, lots of busted straight draws and prob some random cheese too

but as ILP said, I can't say for sure it is a profitable call it just feels good

[mtgordon]

I'm interested to hear what ILP and Miles have to say about the turn action as they are the only people I have any experience with. Do you guys check or bet?

[ILOVEPOKER929]

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I'm interested to hear what ILP and Miles have to say about the turn action as they are the only people I have any experience with. Do you guys check or bet?

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I think the turn play is awfully close Mtgordon. During the heat of battle, here are 5 main factors I would be thinking about:

1) Will he call the turn with a hand like 8x?

2) Will he call the turn with KQ If I bet?

3) Does he check/raise turns with weak top pair hands like A4 in this spot?

4) Is he capable of semibluff check/raising the turn with a big draw like QJ/97?

5) Will he bluff river if I check turn?

Depending on how I weight each factor, the more "Yes" answers I have to those questions the more likely I'm checking the turn. Conversely, more "No" answers = More likely to bet.

I think the answers to questions 1) and 2) and 5) are yes but Im not sure about the rest. Perhaps Villains_Hero will have some idea on questions 3) & 4).

With the information given in the OP I think I would lean towards checking the turn partly becuz I dont think the villain will fold a better hand and also becuz the middle card pairing on the turn gives the villain more legitimate turn C/Ring hands and I dont want to be check/raised off a gutshot. Also based on my experience, players with this stat description will bluff the river very often with their broken draws which is a good thing since Im calling a blank river card. That said, there is no way I would say betting the turn is incorrect. I really dont know the best play here. I think its very close.

[StellarWind]

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With that low of an aggression factor I'm pretty sure you're toast if you get c/r so you can easily b/f. If you're going to call the river anyway you're putting in 1 more bb on this hand. IMO the turn is definitely the correct place to use this because your opponent is awful. He will float the flop with a lot of hands. Why give him a chance to catch a pair to win?

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This analysis does not consider that everytime Villain checks a better hand on the river you save a bet compared to betting the turn and taking a free showdown. Probably he only bets the river with a ten or an ace so that's going to be a lot of bets.

Actually he may not bet an ace. Why? Because if Villain were you he might check with an ace after the scary pair turns. Now as BB he is likely to project his fearful view of poker onto you and assume you might not bet a good ace either. So in his twisted view of reality it isn't safe to bet the river with a weak ace.

Strangely, the reason you might call this river is because he's passive. I really doubt you could afford to payoff an aggressive value bettor who bets this river with almost everything that has you beaten. There are just so many made hands and for most players the amount of bluffing just won't make that up. This is especially true if the river is only semi-blank and may make or pair up some low-end straight draws.

But since Villain is going to miss many of these value bets while still bluffing many of the same hands the odds on a call probably improve enough to be worthwhile.

[Victor]

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I bet the turn because villain is awful and could have called just because nobody else did and he feels like
floating. Check behind on the river.

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if you bet the turn you damn well better bet the river.

[mtgordon]

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I bet the turn because villain is awful and could have called just because nobody else did and he feels like
floating. Check behind on the river.

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if you bet the turn you damn well better bet the river.

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I don't think I agree with this (betting river if called on turn) which makes me sad because I think Victor is much better than me.

My reasoning is that if he calls on the turn he's calling the river as well if he has you beat. I think we can agree that he's not folding an A and certainly not a T. If he's calling the turn with an 8, I don't think he's folding it on the river. He's probably not trying to hit 2 pair since the board is already paired nor do I think he's calling for his 2 outter.

If he misses with any drawing hand we almost certainly have him beat and he's not calling so betting doesn't make sense. The only thing I think we might be able to fold him off of that we don't beat is if he has some draw and he hits a pair on the river. I think that that is so infrequent that betting into his bad A or 8 or pp that he's calling down with is a losing play.

Alright, tell me why I'm wrong.

[villains_hero]

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1) Will he call the turn with a hand like 8x?

2) Will he call the turn with KQ If I bet?

3) Does he check/raise turns with weak top pair hands like A4 in this spot?

4) Is he capable of semibluff check/raising the turn with a big draw like QJ/97?

5) Will he bluff river if I check turn?

Depending on how I weight each factor, the more "Yes" answers I have to those questions the more likely I'm checking the turn. Conversely, more "No" answers = More likely to bet.


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This is good stuff, thank you Ilove. In the OP I tried to indicate that villain may make a weird move on the turn. So I count three "yes" and two "probably" which should make this a check on the turn.