Hand Advice Please

[rockholly]

3 1/2 hours into $20 rebuy on Stars
pays 36 people, around 50 people remaining
avg chip stack around 45,000
Player4 is a tight, smart, good player and this was a rare move to see him put his whole stack on the line, fyi he won the $20R for $8,000+ a few weeks prior but with no other cashes in ~20 games archived


what do you guys think he had and what do you do here (I've purposely removed what I did to get your blind responses)

Thanks

RockHolly


POKERSTARS TOURNAMENT $20+$2 HOLD'EM NOLIMIT - LEVEL XIII (800/1600)
Player1 (51812 in chips)
Player2 (28914 in chips)
RockHolly (29898 in chips)
Player4 (35671 in chips)
Player5 (22187 in chips)
Player6 (21450 in chips)
Player7 (33470 in chips)
Player8 (25400 in chips)
Player9 (150216 in chips)
Player1: posts the ante 150
Player2: posts the ante 150
RockHolly: posts the ante 150
Player4: posts the ante 150
Player5: posts the ante 150
Player6: posts the ante 150
Player7: posts the ante 150
Pplayer8: posts the ante 150
Player9: posts the ante 150
Player5: posts small blind 800
Player6: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to RockHolly [Kh Ah]
Player7: folds
Player8: folds
Player9: folds
Player1: folds
Player2: raises 3200 to 4800
RockHolly: calls 4800
Player4: raises 30721 to 35521 and is all-in
Player5: folds
Player6: folds
Player7: folds

[Rocco]

This hand is actually very easy to play, just shove in the first place. As played, I call the all-in quickly, Villain could be squeezing with a wide range. And remember to discount for AA/KK in his range since you hold two of them.

And also, please use a hand converter next time...

[rockholly]

If I call I'm most likely a 50% favorite. If he does have AA or KK I'm pretty much toast, but even at best I'm 50% or less.

If I fold I still have $25,000 left and in a later hand I can have fold equity that I do not have here.

Is it really that clear of a call/push or is it closer to 50/50 deciding whether to fold or not when fold equity is considered?

Also, I think with 15k or less the answer is clear but with an M of 7-8 the push might be a little overaggressive with a 50% favorite hand.

Thoughts?

[M1cKmAcK]

I think with an m of 7-8 you're looking for good spots to double up. This is a good spot. You made the mistake of just flat calling the pre. I would shove too. You can't wait for KK+ to shove. You have to take +EV risks. Remember, you're playing for first. If you feel you have to fold into the money, you're probably playing out of your limits.

As played, I shove in a second. The play is so loose this late.

[Alex_Rules]

50% favorite is an oxymoron.

Also, with this much overlay you want to get it in with a coinflip, or against another AK (which are the most likely outcomes)

Finally, just calling behind is fine I think because you are so deep, and can take a KQ, AQ, AJ type hand for a huge pot that would be folding pf to a shove.

[Rocco]

[ QUOTE ]
If I call I'm most likely a 50% favorite. If he does have AA or KK I'm pretty much toast, but even at best I'm 50% or less.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you think you're at best 50% or less? Even nits squeezes with AT-AQ and such due to fold equity.

[ QUOTE ]

If I fold I still have $25,000 left and in a later hand I can have fold equity that I do not have here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, you still have FE for open-pushes, but your fold equity for re-stealing is very small. I really like to have that FE.

[ QUOTE ]

Is it really that clear of a call/push or is it closer to 50/50 deciding whether to fold or not when fold equity is considered?

Also, I think with 15k or less the answer is clear but with an M of 7-8 the push might be a little overaggressive with a 50% favorite hand.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless Villain is a huge nit, I think the call is 100% clear. And no, pushing AKs the first time is not overaggressive at all, it's completely standard. Again, don't assume your only 50-50 at best when called, people can definitely call with hands you have dominated.

[Alex_Rules]

why is this a definite push preflop? Are we so afraid of playing AK in position with 15 BBs behind us? I feel like just calling here, even though we arent on the button, is fine because we give ourselves a good chance of winning a huge pot. It also induces squeeze attempts, and give sus the chance to pick off one of those AT-AQ, KQ, tjs squeezes.

On second though, maybe the stakcs aren't quite deep enough to stop us from shoving preflop, but I think if original raiser and hero both had ~40k, just calling preflop is a fine option.

[bookish]

Firstly you should give your posts a more meaningful subject. Yours applies to all posts here. Try and include the buy-in and a bit about the hand.

Having said that though your post is well-written.

I'm putting villain here on JJ+,AJs+, which pokerstove says is:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.950% 41.51% 05.44% 19191123 2515086.00 { AhKh }
Hand 1: 53.050% 47.61% 05.44% 22010913 2515086.00 { JJ+, AJs+ }

There's so much dead money in the pot its an easy call (I make it you've got 25k left and can win 43,350). In actual fact you are not a million miles from being able to call if you know he's got KK.

Having said that push preflop.

[Rocco]

[ QUOTE ]
why is this a definite push preflop? Are we so afraid of playing AK in position with 15 BBs behind us? I feel like just calling here, even though we arent on the button, is fine because we give ourselves a good chance of winning a huge pot. It also induces squeeze attempts, and give sus the chance to pick off one of those AT-AQ, KQ, tjs squeezes.

On second though, maybe the stakcs aren't quite deep enough to stop us from shoving preflop, but I think if original raiser and hero both had ~40k, just calling preflop is a fine option.

[/ QUOTE ]

We can pretty much neglect position here because remaining stacks are probably going in on the flop. Not much room for post-flop play. I don't mind calling and inducing a squeeze if we have a notorious squeezer behind. In other cases I'd just hate to see it folded around and the original raiser make a standard cont bet on a flop that missed us.

[Hattifnatt]

Call plz.