AK vs. river push (NLTRN $11)

dippy111 · #1 08-23-2007, 06:42 PM

~20 hands in. Villain has been pretty tight and sf so far, raising about half of his hands and folding the rest otb. This is my first 3bet

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (2 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t1540)
Hero (t1460)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
Button raises to t60, Hero raises to t180, Button calls t120.

Flop: (t360) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets t260, Button calls t260.

Turn: (t880) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (t880) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets t1100 (All-In), Hero?

Wtf is villains range here? This is the first time he's done something like this. And in the chat box, while I was thinking, he wrote gg [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img].

ChicagoRy · #2 08-23-2007, 06:50 PM

I think it's hero call time.

A2, A3 and a set are about the only things that make sense for villain to play like this. Obviously people do weird [censored] sometimes and you see a 4 sometimes. You have to include a hand like 67 as well I suppose but it sounds like I'd lean towards the thinking that his PF call was with a pretty narrow and strong range. Against this villain I'm calling a lot here and expecting to see a weaker ace or some sort of a K. I discount strong PPs here for the most part.

My opinion might change if you told me he's been super passive with strong hands in raised pots (not just a slowplay, but just a general playing big hands slowly and overbetting rivers). Doesn't look like you have that sort of info though, as stack sizes are pretty close.

vodoo · #3 08-24-2007, 06:59 AM

i dont think you can really call this.

Most of the time when people are writing stuff like that i think they more often have the nuts or near to it then they are bluffing.

looks to me that he is begging for a call with sth. like A3.

Donk move with 99 might be possible.

overpair on the flop, scared on the turn, makes fh on the river and pushes all-in...

how_can_losing? · #4 08-24-2007, 12:59 PM

I'm with vodoo on this one, especially if villain is "tight and straightforward. I would think 99, 55, 44 are all possible here.

I doubt villain is value shoving a pair here, so the range is polarized. So you don't have to worry about calling and losing to A9 or something. But this isn't a cash game. If you lose this hand, you're done. If you fold now you have over 1k; if he is tight and sf the chip disadvantage is not huge.

If you had a different read, this could be a call, but not for this villain.

ChicagoRy · #5 08-24-2007, 03:09 PM

Tight and straight forward doesn't fit with his line. I tend to call more when players play "out of their element." 40% or so of the time you have to be winning for this to be profitable, I think you win 40% of the time, but like I said previously you may change my mind by providing other info.

vodoo · #6 08-24-2007, 04:37 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Tight and straight forward doesn't fit with his line. I tend to call more when players play "out of their element." 40% or so of the time you have to be winning for this to be profitable, I think you win 40% of the time, but like I said previously you may change my mind by providing other info.

[/ QUOTE ]

does this mean that he has to be bluffing there 40% of the time to make it +EV?
Im confused, how did you get on this number?

daveT · #7 08-25-2007, 02:58 PM

If your opponent is willing to bluff over-shove here, wouldn't a better time come up for this kind of call?

I am guessing this is the only time this happened?

dippy111 · #8 08-25-2007, 06:58 PM

Just because an opponent sees an opportunity to make a big bluff once doesn't mean he's going to bluff everytime

daveT · #9 08-25-2007, 07:10 PM

I agree, dippy111. I feel like if the opponent really wants to bluff that bad, then let him have it. being bluffed is part of big bet poker. You are bluffed and you bluff.

However, there is an ego thing that sometimes goes on with certain bluffers. They will continuously over-shove bluff, spinning in their seat and laughing the whole time.

ChicagoRy · #10 08-25-2007, 09:27 PM

The ability to pick up a profitable bluff in this sort of scenario against this villain the first time is huge. He hasn't been a chronic bluffer or Dippy would've probably snap called, or at least called after thinking about it.

Saying "he'll probably bluff again" really hurts you because tight players like this don't bluff as often as you'd imagine, but when they do bluff the line is generally pretty sloppy, as this one seems.