Blind defense with JTs, brilliant or retarded? (w/ ICM goodness)

[Slim Pickens]

Full Tilt $109 6-max, $390/210 payout

CO is a breakeven player, but a massive multitabler and probably making a killing off of rakeback and leaderboard bonuses. He's been a nit so far, and my HUD has him at 10/6 VPIP/PFR through the first 50 hands. He's played 2 pots postflop very ABC. I'm confident he is good enough to shove any flop I check to him. He's probably never folding preflop. He might fold the flop if he thinks he's way behind and I push. I put his preflop raising range on about {66+,ATs+,AJo,KQs}.

blinds 50/100
CO: t1185
Button: t1755
SB: t2365
Hero: (BB) t3695

Dealt to Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Preflop: <font color="red">CO raises to t250</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t150.

Flop: <font color="blue">(t550)</font> Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero shoves</font>...

Now for the ICM goodness...
(stacks)/(ICM prize pool equity), Hero in bold
"standard" fold preflop
(1335,1755,2315,3595)/(0.162,0.208,0.265,0.366)
call preflop, fold flop unimproved
(1485,1755,2315,3445)/(0.177,0.208,0.265,0.354)
call preflop, stack leaderboard nit
(0,1755,2315,4930)/(0,0.208,0.265,0.469)
call preflop, double up leaderboard nit
(2420,1755,2315,2510)/(0.267,0.208,0.265,0.275)

Let's say that if I call preflop, 2/3 of the time I will be check/folding the flop unimproved. Of the 1/3 of the time I don't, say I'm a 75/25 favorite getting him all-in.

(2/3)*0.354 + (1/3)*(0.75*0.469+0.25*0.275) = 0.376

0.376&gt;0.366, so it beats folding by 1%.

My break-even point, where my overall prize pool equity will be the same 0.366 as folding, comes if 1/3 of the time I can get him all-in as a 60/40 dog.

Now who's retarded?

[Kevin8423]

I think it is good to shove here. Didn't really look into all the calculations, but he will fold most missed flops, you have outs when he did happen to connect, and if you lose it just evens out the playing field with you still slighty ahead.

[billxo1b]

so assuming you have no FE on flop, you are optimistic about your 75/25. Even aganst 66, you are only 55% favorite. you are 45% dog against AK. I guess you are at best 45% against his range {66+,ATs+,AJo,KQs}:

(2/3)*0.354 + (1/3)*(0.45*0.469+0.55*0.275) = 0.357

so it is worse than folding, right?

[TreyWilly]

Is there any thought to pushing on a checkraise here, or is the fear that he'll push the flop if you check?

I might be missing the point -- that you were pushing the flop regardless -- but after seeing this flop, I think this might be a better play.

[Kevin8423]

[ QUOTE ]
Even aganst 66, you are only 55% favorite. you are 45% dog against AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Those are both excellent situations. You win and you have a bigger stack ITM, if you lose all four stacks are just evened out and you stay on the bubble. Is that not an ideal situation?

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
so assuming you have no FE on flop, you are optimistic about your 75/25. Even aganst 66, you are only 55% favorite. you are 45% dog against AK. I guess you are at best 45% against his range {66+,ATs+,AJo,KQs}:

(2/3)*0.354 + (1/3)*(0.45*0.469+0.55*0.275) = 0.357

so it is worse than folding, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, therein lies the difficulty. I have to find the 1/3 of flops where I'm a 60/40 favorite. I'm 55/45 on a flop of J74r and a 2:1 favorite with middle pair + flush draw. I'm 61/39 on the flop as it stands, but it's a weird 61/39 where my implied odds suck and I have a lot of folding equity, which is exactly the opposite of what I'd planned.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any thought to pushing on a checkraise here, or is the fear that he'll push the flop if you check?

I might be missing the point -- that you were pushing the flop regardless -- but after seeing this flop, I think this might be a better play.

[/ QUOTE ]

He'll be getting 2:1 to call a check-raise if he bets 300 on the flop, so I don't really see a lot of folding going on. Also, I know he's playing a lot of tables, making him more likely to just f-it and push the flop rather than make a 1/2-pot bet and re-evaluate.

I'm not pushing every flop. I'm planning on check/folding 2/3 of them and check/calling most of the rest. I hadn't even considered what flops I might actually push but I think this one is pretty obvious.

[pifhluk]

Why is he raising with 11bbs? If this is me the only hands I am raising here are aa, kk otherwise I shove. I suppose a case can be made for raising though.

[Shillx]

No way you are going to be a 3:1 favorite when he calls the flop. Assume you are a 3:2 dog. You should also be pushing more flops then 1/3 of them. Perhaps 50% and that still might be low. Certainly any pair/draw is going to get pushed and that adds up to ~50%.

EV &gt; .366 = (.5)*0.354 + (.5*FE)*.398 + (.5*(1-FE))*(0.4*0.469+0.6*0.275)

FE &gt; 55%

2 split: 2.02%
Trips+: 1.45%
Flush: .84%
Flush Draw: 10.94%
Straight: 1.3%
OESD (no 3-flush): 7.8%

The board will come Jxx or Txx (x not J or T) 29% of the time. About 1.7% of the time it will come with a flush draw and 1.4% it will come with an OESD.

You add it all up and you get about 50%.

[Slim Pickens]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is he raising with 11bbs? If this is me the only hands I am raising here are aa, kk otherwise I shove. I suppose a case can be made for raising though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have decent information that he's not a very good player. He may play 2348923324 SNGs, but the few I've played with him remind me of how even a retard like me can beat these games. Basically, he's trying to "play poker" here.