NL50- Set faces turn shove

[murmeltier21]

Hey guys!
Villain is a decent nl50 regular at Party. Kinda nitty stats i got on her (17/12/3), but ive never really seen her get outta line. Now what do you do on this turn? EEEEEEasy call i figured when i was playin, but im concerned what you guys think...

Party Poker
No Limit Hold'em Cash Game
$0.25/$0.50 Blinds
6 Players - (http://www.legopoker.com/hh)

SB: $19.70
BB: $54.26
Hero (UTG): $96.58
MP: $62.43
CO: $48.82
BTN: $30.62

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5c 5d (6 Players)
Hero raises to $2.00, 4 folds, BB calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 5s 8s 4s (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3.00, BB calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.25) Jd (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7.00, BB raises all-in to $49.26, Hero??

[greggg230]

insta-call. if he has JJ, oh well

[jessyj07]

If he's paying attention at all he doesn't ever have AsJx because he's not calling an UTG raise with it. I fail to find hands that you're beating except for 444. I probably call and blame variance or anything else but my bad call.

[Bonesy]

There are a ton of hands you could be behind here. Not sure why she would bet so much though. AsJ is possible I guess. If she is super nitty, I could find a fold, otherwise I would look her up.

[iwa]

I think villian would be afraid of your ace high flush draw unless they have the ace high flush draw. I think most flushes would raise the flop, minus nut flush. I'd say call here, AsJ seems likely to me.

[Peter Harris]

A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jx is likely, but so also is the flopped straight (76s) looking for a safe turn, a "slowplayed" flop 88, also 44 which you beat, or even a flopped flush.

Putting him on one hand and saying call makes a mockery of hand ranges. I see more hands that play this way you are behind than those which you beat.

How about saying here that a straight waits for the safe turn card rather than pops the flop only 10% of the time; 20% of the time he has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jx [this is still steep for only 3 possible combos), 50% of the time he has a set (although one of those combos is 44 which you beat) and 10% of the time (this is steep) they have a weaker hand and are just FPS-ing. Let's give them a semibluff hand though, say a gutshot and one card flush draw like 8x7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. We'll also offer A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Ax as a bad pf and flop slowplay.

So, say the following: 8 set combinations (2x JJ, 3x 88 and 3x 44?), 3 A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Jx combos, 4 76s combos (one of which IS 76 spades for the nuts), 1 A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Ax and one 8x7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] combo for the loose BB call turned semibluff spew.

Bear in mind some of the sets you beat will have the 1 card spade redraw against your non-spade hand too.

Board: 4s 8s 5s Jd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 37.762% 37.76% 00.00% 216 0.00 { 5c5d }
Hand 1: 62.238% 62.24% 00.00% 356 0.00 { AcAs, JcJh, JcJs, 8c8d, 8c8h, 8c8s, 4c4h, 4c4s, 4d4s, 76s, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, 8h7s }

If people want to tinker with the range, say by removing 87 and 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] be my guest. I just think it isn't ever an easy call here, and may well be a fold. Not to say I can fold sets.

EDIT: after all that my range doesn't include any flopped flushes. Add those in with you @ 4-1 dog on the turn and it gets worse. It's a fold.

[Womble]

You should be betting more on flop and turn

This dont look like a flush - straight/2pair/overpair/Jx are his most likely holding - i call

[Peter Harris]

i agree that potting flop/turn would be better, but you completely rule out sets and flushes? I would think c/c c/r is a flop flush or bigger set here a lot of the time! To say never (or not say anything) seems an omission

[ALPHA TRI]

Question is what is she likely to be putting you on here in order for her to push turn?

[Chomp]

Outstanding post Peter. I suck at combinations so can't say whether it's technically right, but it certainly looks right.

At the table I call 100% of the time, but Peter's post is definitely something to consider.

Would be interested in results so we can look again at Peter's post.