$11/180 ITM Shortstack Pot Odds Problem

[Jbrochu]

There are 18 players left so I'm ITM. I'm getting just about 2-to-1 and his range is wide enough that I feel I'm getting the right pot odds. If I fold my M is only about 3.5 after posting the SB. The next bump in pay is 9 positions away.

Do you suck it up here and call even if it makes you feel sick?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t6905)
UTG (t23997)
UTG+1 (t7562)
MP1 (t30474)
MP2 (t1623)
MP3 (t6495)
CO (t41854)
Button (t10220)
SB (t10022)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to t10170</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero...?

[McMelchior]

Unless the blinds are about to increase within 3 hands you should definitively fold. And even if they are you probably should fold anyway.

Only other factor in favor of a call would be if ALL hands are raised and have several callers preflop, but since it's folded to the button here that doesn't seem likely.

You've just paid the BB. After paying 400 more you suddenly have position and another 7 hands to see. If it's folded to you on the button BB is short stacked enough to fold by far most of his hands to your push - so you'll only have to beat one player.

Q7 is the average hand, in that it's ahead of 50% of all other hands and behind 50%. So even if you can put button on an absolutely random hand you're not a favorite.

Calling Q7 all-in would probably be correct if you were getting at least 3:1 on the call AND would be left with less than 4 - 5 BBs if you folded. With 7.5 BB left after a fold and the pot offering less than 1.5 : 1 (check you math) calling here is highly -EV.

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
pot offering less than 1.5 : 1 (check you math)

[/ QUOTE ]

Ooops, stupid mistake on my part. I counted the $$ he had me covered by when figuring the odds which I obviously couldn't have won... [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]