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#1
09-16-2007, 05:58 PM
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why are you not massively shorting the dollar?
something i always read about pretty much everywhere is how much trouble the dollar is in.
i remember when it was at 1.9 $/£ all i ever read was that it was going to hit 2.00 and it has comfortably done so. the mood has not changed, the dollars decline should still be with us for a long time to come, again from what i keep reading. so why are people massively shorting the dollar, as in leveraging hugely? 
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#3
09-16-2007, 06:30 PM
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Re: why are you not massively shorting the dollar?
U.S. budget deficits have declined pretty dramatically from the worst of the Bush years. But they are still apparently understated by some funny accounting. Since I believe budget deficits help depreciate a currency it would seem things are getting better for the dollar. So I'm not sure I would short it going forward. A lot will depend on the makeup of the next congress and president.
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#4
09-16-2007, 08:20 PM
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Re: why are you not massively shorting the dollar?
[ QUOTE ]
U.S. budget deficits have declined pretty dramatically from the worst of the Bush years. But they are still apparently understated by some funny accounting. Since I believe budget deficits help depreciate a currency it would seem things are getting better for the dollar. So I'm not sure I would short it going forward. A lot will depend on the makeup of the next congress and president. [/ QUOTE ] relative growth, foreign savings, and relative interest rates also have massive imapcts on the dollar. fiscal deficits don't add much in relative terms (i.e. in terms of new bond issues). other flows are hugely mor impactful i'd still want to short the dollar. Barron
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#5
09-17-2007, 01:34 AM
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Re: why are you not massively shorting the dollar?
[ QUOTE ]
Cause I'm American? [/ QUOTE ] This is probably a joke, but it reminds me reading about traders who bust out after the tech bubble burst for refusing to short US stocks. "It's unpatriotic" [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Emotional nonesense. I'd have though embracing capitalism was patriotic enough for an American...
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#7
09-17-2007, 02:10 AM
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Re: why are you not massively shorting the dollar?
[ QUOTE ]
U.S. budget deficits have declined pretty dramatically from the worst of the Bush years. [/ QUOTE ] This is an illusion. Inflated dollars are simply returning to the treasury as tax revenues and an artificial boom.
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#9
09-17-2007, 07:17 AM
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Re: why are you not massively shorting the dollar?
[ QUOTE ]
£100 per $0.01 swing vs £ £100 per $0.01 swing vs Euro shorting dollar on both. [/ QUOTE ] Wow? I would have picked almost any of the other top-20 major world currencies (excluding NZ$, AU$ and CAD). I am not bullish on the US$ but I'd much rather bet yen or yuan against the dollar than € or £. Actually I do have a significant bet against the US$, and it's 35% gold, 35% silver, 30% Chinese telco.
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#10
09-17-2007, 07:23 AM
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Re: why are you not massively shorting the dollar?
ah okay cool, ill switch the euro one to $ vs the yuan, thanks.
as for the £ one i might as well keep it as i have $20k tied up in staking so a $0.01 swing changes my amount by £100 the other way, so it's just a hedge really. what would you say is a good stop loss for gold?
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