2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?

[gobbledygeek]

2/4 B&M, 10 players, loose & passive

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Hero raises, 4 coldcallers, SB completes, BB calls

Flop (7 players, 14 SB): A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
checked to Hero who checks, EP bets, 3 LP callers, Hero calls (getting 18:1, I think I can peel here)

Turn (5 players, 9.5 BB): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Hero checks, EP bets, 2 LP callers, Hero?

The two LP callers aren't total retards so I'm assuming at least one of them has a club. How do I count my outs here? My two 9 outs are pretty solid but how many do I count for my club outs? I'm getting 12.5:1; easy call and nothing to discuss here?

GcluelessnoobG

[jesse8888]

pf = good
flop = good peel. without the 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] you'd have to fold

I don't think you can call the turn. You have three opponents remaining who hold 6 (albeit somewhat random) cards. There are four single clubs that crush your draw. Also, anybody with a made flush kills your 9s as outs, and likely even beats your flush draw.

Admittedly you could have as many as 11 outs, but I think they need to be discounted very, very heavily. EP just kept betting when the flush came in, and the callers aren't total retards; somebody has a flush card bigger than you. I'd just fold and not watch the river.

[mntndrew]

This isn't really an answer, but have you considered removing the rake when you count the pot? I do at 6/12 and 8/16 where the rake is less severe. At 2/4, assuming a $4 rake and a $1 tip, there's 2.5 SB less that you're playing for. It may occasionally make the difference between a profitable and an unprofitable call.

I guess I should take a stab at an actual answer.

I'm seriously discounting my outs on the flop, enough that I wouldn't peel -- especially after removing the rake and reducing our odds to 15.5:1.

I'm folding the turn too -- you don't have much in the way of implied odds as you can't really overcall even a single caller if a club hits the river.

Making a fairly safe assumption that our 9's are no good, our possible scenarios are...

1. Drawing dead to a made flush T or better (some of the middle ones will not raise at a passive table).
2. 1 or more higher clubs out, drawing to two outs.
3. your opponents hold no clubs, just aces and jacks, drawing to 11 outs.
4. your opponents hold some number of your club outs but you still hold the highest one, and you're drawing to 5-10 outs.

I'm going to pull some numbers out of thin air and say that 20% of the time you're drawing dead, 50% of the time you're facing a bigger club, 10% of the time you're drawing to 11 outs, and 20% of the time you're drawing to an average of 7 outs.

That's like 3.5 outs, which I guess is enough to continue if you believe the seat of the pants numbers. You can't really make any money on the river, but we might have a sufficiently bloated pot that we don't need to. Maybe this is why I wanted to fold the flop. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[jesse8888]

My assumption of a good flop peel was based on the 18:1 number. If it's actually more like 15.5:1, which appears to be the case, I'm dumping on the flop as well.

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
My assumption of a good flop peel was based on the 18:1 number. If it's actually more like 15.5:1, which appears to be the case, I'm dumping on the flop as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

[mntndrew]

Also, if you river a club, really the only good result is the hand checking around. If EP can keep betting, there's a good chance he has a strong flush. If a later position player bets, then you still have to worry about the small chance of a disastrous check-raise behind you.

[BadBigBabar]

i fold the flop pretty much whatever the odds are.

[MattHH]

[ QUOTE ]
This isn't really an answer, but have you considered removing the rake when you count the pot? I do at 6/12 and 8/16 where the rake is less severe. At 2/4, assuming a $4 rake and a $1 tip, there's 2.5 SB less that you're playing for. It may occasionally make the difference between a profitable and an unprofitable call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a good rule of thumb to use for factoring in the cost of rake, subtracting 2.5 SB from an average sized pot?

[mntndrew]

[ QUOTE ]
Is this a good rule of thumb to use for factoring in the cost of rake, subtracting 2.5 SB from an average sized pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Um.... depends on your stakes and rake and tip? $4 rake + $1 tip is 2.5 SB at 2/4. At 6/12, it's 5/6 of a bet, which I usually just approximate to 1 SB unless the SB folds in which case it's easy to figure out the exact pot size. The rake and tip are what they are; maybe I don't understand your question, but I don't know why you're asking about an "average pot size."

Oh, unless you're thinking of those 10% raked games with a rake cap. Where I play, it's a fixed $4 rake. Hopefully your game is good enough that the pots get large enough to hit the rake cap.

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Is this a good rule of thumb to use for factoring in the cost of rake, subtracting 2.5 SB from an average sized pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Um.... depends on your stakes and rake and tip? $4 rake + $1 tip is 2.5 SB at 2/4. At 6/12, it's 5/6 of a bet, which I usually just approximate to 1 SB unless the SB folds in which case it's easy to figure out the exact pot size. The rake and tip are what they are; maybe I don't understand your question, but I don't know why you're asking about an "average pot size."

Oh, unless you're thinking of those 10% raked games with a rake cap. Where I play, it's a fixed $4 rake. Hopefully your game is good enough that the pots get large enough to hit the rake cap.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to remember the last time I saw a pot at Canterbury that didn't hit the rake cap.