50NL: KQ Flops 2pr multi-way

[Daniel LeClaire]

Villains are unknown.

I couldn't decide what to do here. My state of mind is not great because I have been taking a lot of bad beats and coolers lately.

CO's raise with BU still to act is troublesome. Obviously, I'm worried about JT. There really aren't a lot of two pair hands he can have. In the end I decided that he could have a lot of pair + gutshot hands so I shoved.

The weak flop lead was trying to induce a raise from the button. I didn't have any stats on him, but from the few hands I had seen he seemed donkish.


Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

SB: $49.50
BB: $52.70
Hero (UTG): $52.75
MP: $33
CO: $58.30
BTN: $96.55

Pre-Flop: Q K dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $1.75</font>, MP folds, CO calls $1.75, <font color="red">BTN raises to $3</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.25, CO calls $1.25

Flop: ($9.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $24.75</font>, BTN folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $49.75 and is All-In</font>

[geekylucas]

I don't think I'm leading weak like this when the board is so connected and there are 2 players left to act behind me. Leading strong may help us narrow the hand ranges of players behind us.

As played: Although we have no reads on CO, their preflop action (call/call) makes me think they're likely to have 99 or JTs, less likely to have AK/AQ/AA. If we eliminate those three hands there's not much left that we're ahead of.

In the heat of the moment I'm probably shoving here too. But the more I think about it the more I think we're behind more than we're ahead.

[LegendLength]

I think the preflop minraise is AA or AK enough that you can safely push. Considering that donks love the minraise and you had an inkling that he was one, it is a good push in my book.

I don't see JT minraising often although perhaps 99 / KK / QQ is just as likely as AA / AK. I would go with what is a positive EV push IMO, taking into account bluffs and other hands such as Axs / ATo / KQ / JJ / TT.

One thing that might put me off is that a large overbet on a wet board like this is sometimes a set that really doesn't want to be drawn out on. But in the end I think it's just too hard to fold the 2 pair unless your roll is low and you're worried about variance.

[JimboNYY24]

You really don't beat anything he unless he plays AK/AA really badly. Best case I think would be him showing down KQ as well. I woulda been happy to get this in against BTN who misraised preflop. But I doubt your ahead of this guy.

[PayoffWiz]

this is super standard.

[creamfillin]

[ QUOTE ]
this is super standard.

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[geekylucas]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the preflop minraise is AA or AK enough that you can safely push. Considering that donks love the minraise and you had an inkling that he was one, it is a good push in my book.

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The CO was not the min-raiser. The CO's action pre-flop was call/call. The button was the min-raiser.