Quick Question on Equity

[TylerT]

I was watching Fabian's CR video just now and he raised on the button w/ K7s and a short stack shoved. The situation was he had to call $17.50 with the pot currently at $27.00. The villain was 16/13(384), and he said that he needed only 35% equity to call. Can someone please explain this to me? He has to call 64% of the pot size but only needs 35% equity?

[SDone]

Because 17.50+27.00=44.50???

I was never too clear on the equity thing.

[raze]

If he was risking $27 to make $27, he would only have to win half the time (50% equity) to break even, right? Put in $27, and get back $54 half the time, and $0 half the time.

Since he's risking only $17.50 to make $27, it makes sense that he doesn't need to win even half the time to break even.

$17.50 / $44.50 = 39.3% equity needed to break even

[DiamondDog]

Raze is right.

By my reckoning, if he calls, he's accepting pot odds of 27 - 17.50.

That's approximately 60 - 40, so he'd need 40% equity to make calling worthwhile.

[TylerT]

So am I wrong in thinking that 35% of the time he wins and nets $27.00, 65% of the time he loses and nets -$17.50?

(.35 * 27)+(.65 * -17.50)=-1.925

Losing, on average about $1.93 every time he makes that call. Is my thinking wrong??[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[DiamondDog]

Your thinking is correct.

I agree with your calculation - if his equity is only 35%, calling has -ve EV.

His equity needs to be slightly higher (by my calculation, 40%) for calling to be correct.

Unless I'm missing something.

[Fabian]

Everyone is right. The number I threw out (35) was a quick estimate in my head, and wasn't entirely accurate. I also mentioned right afterwards that it didn't look completely accurate to me. 17.50 / 44.50 = 39.3 is right

[TylerT]

eeew, neato--the author himself. Thanks everyone. Also, nice video, Fabian. I like your style of play.