Variance

[bestcellar]

for those that keep records and have 1,000 plus tournaments, and play at least 50 tourneys a month, what's the best and worst stretch you ever went through

in a week?
in a month?
in two months?

I'm intrigued about seeing variance in actual statistics, rather than just probabilities and confidence intervals.

I also don't want to hear "it could be infinitely hot/cold", I want to know what you went through personally. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Also, feel free to add where you might have been leaking/playing on tilt or feeling the cards so well you could tell the other player what suits his pocket 8s were.

[Ansky]

Well ppl do this all the time, but it's meaningless to talk in periods of time since people play different amounts per week or per month. Also, another problem with analyzing this through tournaments is that we all tend to play different buy ins. It's not like in sngs or limit where you can look at 1 limit and assess your total loss in buy ins or in BB.

That said, I think I've gone close to 40 tournaments in a row without a cash, but by the last few I was probably on life tilt and trying to lose on purpose.

[C-Dog]

What kind of numbers did you want? Since I started keeping track I havent had a month in the Red. But I had about Half of a month in the red, than made a little comeback to end in the black. Do you want total number of consec tourneys with a total in the Red? Or just streaks without any ITMs?

C-Dog

[NHFunkii]

I don't run bad.

[bestcellar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well ppl do this all the time, but it's meaningless to talk in periods of time since people play different amounts per week or per month. Also, another problem with analyzing this through tournaments is that we all tend to play different buy ins. It's not like in sngs or limit where you can look at 1 limit and assess your total loss in buy ins or in BB.

That said, I think I've gone close to 40 tournaments in a row without a cash, but by the last few I was probably on life tilt and trying to lose on purpose.

[/ QUOTE ]

I figured this was a somewhat common topic, but I'm interested in seeing results for selfish reasons. I keep all my non-satellite, non-WSOP MTT tourneys in the same spreadsheet, regardless of buyin. I was just looking to laugh about some swings we've had, good and bad.

[bestcellar]

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of numbers did you want? Since I started keeping track I havent had a month in the Red. But I had about Half of a month in the red, than made a little comeback to end in the black. Do you want total number of consec tourneys with a total in the Red? Or just streaks without any ITMs?

C-Dog

[/ QUOTE ]

bad streaks in terms of ITMs and FTs and ROI.

[Mi_T_Sharp]

I don't think you should obsess about variance. It will only hurt your game if you are worried about it. That's probably usually why someone would have a bad long streak. After a bunch of bad beats, you start obsessing, playing weak or just bad, and it continues.

[Ansky]

Variance happens because it's poker, regardless of how you are playing.

[bestcellar]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think you should obsess about variance. It will only hurt your game if you are worried about it. That's probably usually why someone would have a bad long streak. After a bunch of bad beats, you start obsessing, playing weak or just bad, and it continues.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not obsessing about it; I want to laugh about it with you guys [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Mi_T_Sharp]

Also, variance varies from person to person. IMO, comparing examples of variance like is completely pointless, unless it's just for fun. I don't have any math to back this up, but the math side of my brain is telling me that this is a completely pointless excersise (no offense).