Play a Hand With the Masters #3 Flop B

[Paul Thomson]

His raise is suspect. It's either a bluff or the nuts 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Maybe 99 but I wouldn't play it that way. It could also be a weak hand that is trying to see if you were on a total bluff. I never play a hand this way, so it's hard for me to speculate. He's giving us odds to draw to so many hands even if he had any of the above hands. More than anything, it means that he's a donk. So I would be willing to play deeper into the hand against him. But for now, I'd call. Gotta goto bed. But I'll speculate some more tomorrow.

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
His raise is suspect. It's either a bluff or the nuts 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Maybe 99 but I wouldn't play it that way. It could also be a weak hand that is trying to see if you were on a total bluff. I never play a hand this way, so it's hard for me to speculate. He's giving us odds to draw to so many hands even if he had any of the above hands. More than anything, it means that he's a donk. So I would be willing to play deeper into the hand against him. But for now, I'd call. Gotta goto bed. But I'll speculate some more tomorrow.

[/ QUOTE ]

So you don't think he raises A9 here? There are a large number of hands that he doesn't believe he is bluffing with when he raises. True, there are a number of people who make this raise merely to probe whehter or not you want to go any deeper, but most people play their hands. He is trying to define his hand and yours. Let's say you are the villian and you have 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. How would you play this flop? Better yet, what are 3 reasonable flop/turn strategies for playing this hand?

[CardSharpCook]

Paul this is a quote from you post in "FlopA"

[ QUOTE ]
Scenario 1) If he check-raise...This is what I would do if I were him with a flush draw or straight draw or pair with a gut draw. The reason is that as the opponent you have us covered and chips. And if a scare card comes on the turn then I want to be able to make a big enough bet that will scare my opponent into folding even if it doesn't make my hand. So if I were him, I'd probably raise 4-4.5x the size of our bet depending on the size of our bet. If I were him, I'd want us to fear that we're going to have to be ready to go broke.


[/ QUOTE ]

If villian had raised to 600-700, you would have called... but he raised to 300 and you want to fold? Does that make sense to you? An opponent who has raised to 700 here will likely push the turn. Will you call that too? All we have to do to get Paul Thomson to pay us off is to bet big? All we have to do to get him to fold is min-raise? Your plan has some flaws. Do you see them? At this point in the hand, this is looking like one of the hands Gigabet is talking about when he talks about stacking your opponent by playing speculative hands early. Flopping two-pair is GOOD. True, there are turns to worry about, but right now I am dancing in my seat. My lure has snagged a bass, all I have to do is reel him in (and avoid the sharks that take the form of 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img])

[NoahSD]

(without looking)

Villain's raise is oddly small, but it's tough to know what that means, so I just hope that either I won't need to interpret it, or I'll be able to interpret it once I get more information.

For now, I think he's on a very wide range. It's basically any draw and any pair that he would've called with preflop. I think it's something like A8h-AJh+, 55-JJ, KTh+, JT, QTh+, 67s, 78s, 89s, 9Ts, K9, A9.

Against this range, we've got 66% equity. My original thought was to take the turn because I thought it would clarify things, but after looking at some turn cards, I no longer like that option (Equity after certain turns: 2h- 65%, 2c- 77%, 9d- 35%, Th- 55%, Ac- 68%). My problem is that the only really easy river cards to play are offsuit 2s, 3s, 4s, and Js, and our opponent gets off easy on his draws when we call the flop and bet the turn here.

So, I favor a reraise here, and given the texture of the flop, the fact that we're still pretty deep, and the fact that I really don't see getting away from this hand right now, I make it a pretty big one. I make it 900.

[badplayer]

Fold. It's not because I think he has the best hand. To me, the small check-raise suggests a strong draw, an over-pair, or a complete bluff.

At this point, I only see two options: push all-in or fold.
And while I suspect I have the best hand, it could be quite vulnerable to a heart or even an overcard. The chance that an all-in will get villian to fold or call with a draw is outweighed by the possiblity of getting outdrawn.

At this early stage of the tournament, the most important thing I can do is to survive. I just don't see the point in putting everything at risk on this one hand, even if we have the best hand right now. If villian has a heart draw, there is about a one-in-three chance that this will be the last hand. If villian has an overpair, there is at least a one-in-four chance that this will be our last hand. I'm not willing to take that risk so early in the tournament.

Of course, there is a time and place to gamble. I just don't believe this is one of those times.

That said, I can't wait to find out that villian has 72 off-suit. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

After all, what do I know?

[Exitonly]

Is that a somewhat clever gimmick account?

edit: irony = mispelling clever

[badplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Is that a somewhat clever gimmick account?

[/ QUOTE ]

Alas, no. It's my one and only 2+2 account.

Long time lurker with nothing substantial to contribute (and now you see why)

[Exitonly]

alright, i was asking if it was a gimmick not cause i wanted to make fuun of you, just i didnt want to type up a response if it was a joke.

[ QUOTE ]
To me, the small check-raise suggests a strong draw, an over-pair, or a complete bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sweet! What is bad about this scenario? We are ahead, and we have position.


[ QUOTE ]
At this point, I only see two options: push all-in or fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Push will get some hands we beat (one pair hands mediocre draws maybe an overpair) to fold. Which isn't the worst thing in the world, but we'd rather have them in there heads up with us, giving us more chips. Also, hands taht beat us, will call, so there arent really any positives.

And folding, ,you said the hands you put the guy on, and we're ahead of them, why would we fold?

[ QUOTE ]
it could be quite vulnerable to a heart or even an overcard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well we get to see what he does on the future streets, we can make more decision when the heart comes, or the turn blanks. And we can't be playing scared of 'an overcard' if he's drawing to 3 outs we should fold?

[ QUOTE ]
At this early stage of the tournament, the most important thing I can do is to survive. I just don't see the point in putting everything at risk on this one hand, even if we have the best hand right now. If villian has a heart draw, there is about a one-in-three chance that this will be the last hand. If villian has an overpair, there is at least a one-in-four chance that this will be our last hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

AKA. ~75% of time we'll have double up. That's awesome and we'll be in great shape for a while. This isn't a gamble, Villain is the one 'gambling' here, we're just getting value out of our hands. If we don't do this where do you draw the line?

[badplayer]

[ QUOTE ]

AKA. ~75% of time we'll have double up. That's awesome and we'll be in great shape for a while. This isn't a gamble, Villain is the one 'gambling' here, we're just getting value out of our hands. If we don't do this where do you draw the line?

[/ QUOTE ]

To say that I play scared is an understatement for sure. And it's one of the many reasons I've never won a tournament (having played my 400th just the other night).

Sure, we beat the hands I put villian on (heart draw, straight draw, an overpair). Notice, I've conveniently neglected the unlikely hands that have us beat or are most likely to win (97, 95, 68, 99, 55, 77, 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] and a few I might be missing).

But okay, I call the raise. Then I get horribly confused and usually don't know what to do.

Suppose the turn is a heart and villian goes all-in. Easy muck? Okay, I guess.

Suppose the turn is a heart and villian checks? Check behind? Or make a small bet?

Suppose the turn is the ace of clubs and villian bets the pot? Another easy call? Not for me.

Suppose it's another nine? Then what? If villian makes any bet, I'm worried about being counterfeited.

Suppose the turn is a total blank (deuce of spades, let's say) and villian pushes.

In short, I don't know how to play poker. That's why I like "push or fold". It's one thing having position. It's another thing to know what to do with it. Sadly, I still don't always know.

Your question "where do you draw the line?" is an excellent one. I see your point that this could be an opportunity to double-up. Since I'm a "glass is half-empty" guy, I see it as a way to blow my entire stack.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Suppose the turn is a heart and villian goes all-in. Easy muck? Okay, I guess.

Suppose the turn is a heart and villian checks? Check behind? Or make a small bet?

Suppose the turn is the ace of clubs and villian bets the pot? Another easy call? Not for me.

Suppose it's another nine? Then what? If villian makes any bet, I'm worried about being counterfeited.

Suppose the turn is a total blank (deuce of spades, let's say) and villian pushes.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think if you think about these situations you could think up a good way to handle each of them. Just don't panis, and think through your options. If situations are hard you don't get better by choosing paths that avoid them, you get better by learning to make the hard decisions better.