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#71
10-27-2007, 01:29 AM
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Re: Countrywide
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Single digits for CFC is around the corner. Shorting it all the way to 0. OT - Where did Fishhead24 go? [/ QUOTE ] Well not so much... What did everyone think about their call? I don't have a strong opinion at the current price, but that MSR is eventually going to come in handy. [/ QUOTE ] What else was Mozillo going to say? He needs to keep the price up so he can continue to dump the rest of his stock. What does he have to fear by spouting patent BS? A shareholder lawsuit? LOL, they have 6 or 7 against them already. 
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#72
10-27-2007, 08:56 PM
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Re: Countrywide
I'm going to wait for the run-up when rates get cut, and then I'm shorting this bloated pig right into the ground.
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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#73
10-28-2007, 12:55 AM
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Re: Countrywide
Weird thing; last week a Countrywide guy tried to hire my girlfriend, said his local office was hiring several people (and rolling in profit and commision). I thought it was pretty bizarre that they were hiring even though the company has just layed off a bunch of people and is on the way to busto.
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#75
10-28-2007, 05:37 PM
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Re: Countrywide
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Single digits for CFC is around the corner. Shorting it all the way to 0. OT - Where did Fishhead24 go? [/ QUOTE ] Well not so much... What did everyone think about their call? I don't have a strong opinion at the current price, but that MSR is eventually going to come in handy. [/ QUOTE ] They are going bust. Just another suckers rally like what happened when it ran from 15 to 20 when they had news about B of A. Been short since mid 30s and will cover at 0. [/ QUOTE ] Do you have an idea of what their book looks like or are you guessing? I can't imagine a scenario where Countrywide goes bust AND most of the rest of the economy holds up enough for the present aggregate equity valuation to make sense. Unless I'm completely wrong about their book and/or there's a big company-specific fraud going on. Note that nothing fishy has actually happened - Countrywide and its senior management pretty much reacted as one would expect all things considered and they were one of the least shady lenders during the heydays.
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#76
10-28-2007, 09:45 PM
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Re: Countrywide
I doubt you can believe anyone's book value that's been involved in any subprime lending to speak of. Nobody is writing their paper down to true value, and every day that the housing market declines makes their paper worth less and less.
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#77
10-28-2007, 10:00 PM
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Re: Countrywide
[ QUOTE ]
I doubt you can believe anyone's book value that's been involved in any subprime lending to speak of. Nobody is writing their paper down to true value, and every day that the housing market declines makes their paper worth less and less. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not talking about their stated book value - I'm talking about their book. And Countrywide shouldn't have all that much subprime paper anyway. I'm wondering if anyone has done any comprehensive analysis of the specifics. We all know it must have taken a big hit and we all think that it's probably worse than stated. It seems that most are content to say that they are going down because of this and that, but with no real analysis to speak of.
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#78
10-30-2007, 01:38 AM
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Re: Countrywide
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I doubt you can believe anyone's book value that's been involved in any subprime lending to speak of. Nobody is writing their paper down to true value, and every day that the housing market declines makes their paper worth less and less. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not talking about their stated book value - I'm talking about their book. And Countrywide shouldn't have all that much subprime paper anyway. [/ QUOTE ] Heh?? They were one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, subprime lender in the country. [ QUOTE ] I'm wondering if anyone has done any comprehensive analysis of the specifics. We all know it must have taken a big hit and we all think that it's probably worse than stated. It seems that most are content to say that they are going down because of this and that, but with no real analysis to speak of. [/ QUOTE ] Of course not. The companies themselves haven't done that kind of analysis, except for maybe a block of paper they are trying to peddle. Why would they do that? It would be a waste of time.
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#79
10-30-2007, 11:07 AM
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Re: Countrywide
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I doubt you can believe anyone's book value that's been involved in any subprime lending to speak of. Nobody is writing their paper down to true value, and every day that the housing market declines makes their paper worth less and less. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not talking about their stated book value - I'm talking about their book. And Countrywide shouldn't have all that much subprime paper anyway. [/ QUOTE ] Heh?? They were one of the biggest, if not THE biggest, subprime lender in the country. [/ QUOTE ] They don't keep all of that stuff. Looking at their #'s, it looks like they're holding a bit less than 2B worth of subprime and/or residuals from other mortgage securitizations. They can write that down to 0 and they'd still be trading below or around book value. Much of this is expected. Countrywide knew before others that subprime was going bad - their mistake was in expecting other non-agency mortgages to hold up. Note that a lot of the non-agency related market losses are liquidity-driven, not credit-driven, unless you believe Fannie and Freddie are grossly mispricing the credit risk. Note also that mortgage companies in general choose the best of the category, when deciding which mortgages to hold for investment. Among all these mortgage companies that went out of business recently, I can't recall one that did because of material deterioration in the performance of mortgages held for investment. They mostly blew up because of liquidity issues, decline in the value of mortgages in the pipeline and/or early payment defaults. [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] I'm wondering if anyone has done any comprehensive analysis of the specifics. We all know it must have taken a big hit and we all think that it's probably worse than stated. It seems that most are content to say that they are going down because of this and that, but with no real analysis to speak of. [/ QUOTE ] Of course not. The companies themselves haven't done that kind of analysis, except for maybe a block of paper they are trying to peddle. Why would they do that? It would be a waste of time. [/ QUOTE ] Their financial statements are the result of such analysis. If you choose to bet against those statements being right, you better do a comprehensive analysis, because they have much better sources than you do.
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