AK on dry Flop 200nl

[MyironThumb]

I realise I bet too much on the flop, this was a mistake I ment to make it $36

Villan is a standard TAG but more on the nitty side. stats are 20/13/5


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $226.25
Hero (BB): $310.70
UTG: $71.00
MP: $207.50
CO: $225.00
BTN: $209.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG calls $2.00, MP folds, CO calls $2.00, BTN calls $2.00, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $12.00</font>, UTG calls $10.00, CO calls $10.00, BTN calls $10.00

Flop: ($49) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $40.00</font>, 2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $120.00</font>

hero? standard fold?

[johnbeans]

I think betting more like you did makes your decisions a little easier, and it's probably a fold. Who is the villain here?

[MyironThumb]

IAmClutch is the villan. havnt tangled with him much or anything and he may not be too nitty. just wasnt doing alot

So we're ok with a fold here?

[livegamelive1]

I think this is a difficult spot and not just an insta-fold. Your range to raise OOP in the BB is weighted more towards pairs (88-AA maybe) than AK/AQ and he probably knows this. I could see the button stacking off with AQ-A10 here just as often as a set or a two pair. I know it looks like an easy fold but I think it's a lot closer than that.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
IAmClutch is the villan. havnt tangled with him much or anything and he may not be too nitty. just wasnt doing alot

So we're ok with a fold here?

[/ QUOTE ]

usually i'd say folding AK when you flop TP in a 3-bet pot isn't good, but if there is a hand to do it, this is it. the board is as dry as could be, and i really can't see him limping in w/an AQish type hand, and is see this being a bluff very rarely. I think you could include A3s/A8s in his button limping range, as well as 33 of course. maybe 88, but i think players like him raise that pre-flop. and i don't think he ever raises a weaker A in this spot.

fwiw, IAmClutch is a CR member

[tubasteve]

you're definitely beat. he has a set or 2p every time

[johnbeans]

I think he shows up w/AQ,AJ here like never since he would raise those pre flop. If he has an ace he is likely just calling. It's only difficult, because he might think you are folding 99-KK and AK/AQ some % of the time. I'm sure IAmClutch is capable of making such a move, but I'm not convinced he is doing it with any semblance of regularity. So I'd say it's a pretty sound fold.

[Thoth]

This is a fold. I assume you're usually not cbetting this flop into 3 players when missed. A 20/13 never has AQ/AJ here, but could easily have A3s or 33

[livegamelive1]

I agree that it's a sound fold johnbeans. The only thing is that if you say he can't show up with AJ/AQ because he would raise them pre flop (and you're most likely right), then the same can be said for 88. 88 would get raised for sure from the button by a 20/13 and i'm inclined to think that A3o and A8o would be folded. That really narrows the range to 33 and suited versions of A3 and A8. Despite that small range, i guess it looks like that's what he's holding so folding is right but I still say not as easy as it seems.

[bilbo-san]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a difficult spot and not just an insta-fold. Your range to raise OOP in the BB is weighted more towards pairs (88-AA maybe) than AK/AQ and he probably knows this. I could see the button stacking off with AQ-A10 here just as often as a set or a two pair. I know it looks like an easy fold but I think it's a lot closer than that.

[/ QUOTE ]

If IAMClutch thinks that villain is betting QQ into 4 players here, then IAmClutch is [censored] RETARDED.

This logic makes no sense.