$114 AK on the bubble

[DDBeast]

Villain has a very loose raising range, but is bad and will probably call with a lot of hands that he shouldn't. I think pushing is the only play but I'm not so sure.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t4390)
UTG (t5430)
Button (t2200)
SB (t1480)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero ...

[re3z0r]

im not an expert but i would like someone to annalyze how i would play this situation.

i would call the raise since villian is 'bad', you have position on him and if you catch a A or K you put a lot of his deap stack at risk? I'm not sure if this is proper ICM play or not but this is how i would play it, it is probably a big leak in my game.
Also, If you push and he calls with a PP you are a coinflip on the bubble so im not sure how great that is, however you are profitable against any other hand, so since he is 'bad' he will probably call your all in with a wide range of marginal hands.
I dunno, could someone tell me what is wrong with calling then trying to get his stack in after the flop if you catch an A or K? I'm almost afraid to ask and I'm thinking about putting this in the n00b thread.

[Kevin8423]

I'm just calling because of your read. Expecting to be called by much worse hands I would think negates your big stack advantage here simply because you are only slightly above his stack. If he calls wide here and we are usually 60:40 we are losing this hand a fair amount which could likely lead to bubbling.

Call and get aggressive if you connect with the flop, otherwise I wouldn't risk the tournament against someone who will be calling very wide.

[Chipchucker5]

We're going to be OOP for the rest of the hand. I can't see myself doing anything but shoving PF.

[Kevin8423]

Being OOP hardly matters if we play to showdown when we hit the flop and fold when we miss. Of course we wouldn't get it in on really dangerous flops.

[Seeeno]

The blind is only t200 ... hmm ...
What do you guys think about reraising to 2000, willingly to call an all-in ?
Do not think that this is optimal play or something, it just was not mentiont before ... and I cant put in words if this is good or bad ...

[ryanghall]

DD because of your read I'd call over push.

Pushing is better than folding, though.

Ryan

[fluorescenthippo]

id call given your read. and C/C most flops i hit unless i hit real hard

[ToNYlol]

I think if we take it one more step further beyond the actual hand in question and examine future events, we can see that while pushing may be +EV here in this current situation, we are actually better off if we just call. For example:

1. If we are 60/40 against his range, 60 percent of the time we will take a monster chip lead and finish 1st in virtually all of them. 40 percent of the time we are making nothing. If however, in the same situations we finish 2nd and 3rd we're making the same, with far less risk than 40%. Two 2nds and we're making 6x compared to 5x. This isn't even taking into account that if we call and miss, we can still beat Villain HU for 1st.

I know this may sound like psuedo-strategy, but still just a thought.

[Matt G]

I call and see flop bc
1. He has you covered and you're on the bubble.
2. No need to risk all in bc there are shorter stacks in the tourney which are going to have to push soon with a wide range
3. You have a good number of chips.

Tight is right on the bubble.