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#21
03-08-2007, 10:19 AM
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Re: A9s multiway with RIO
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I don't know how somebody could make 8,000 posts and not raise this flop. [/ QUOTE ] I think Dave's main problem here is that the flop bettor is 18/3/not-aggro. What does a tight-passive player bet the flop into the preflop raiser with? A set, 2 pair (though unlikely given his vpip of 18), and maybe a flush draw come to my mind. Maybe TP2K, hoping the pf-raiser has wiffed overs. [/ QUOTE ] Why did he raise the turn then? 
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#22
03-08-2007, 10:20 AM
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Re: A9s multiway with RIO
A-mann - has a point. If the flop bettor had also shown any aggression pre flop then I think it is a clear raise but raising is going to make it 7:1 to call and you are not going to fold any flush draws for that, and then they would likely still have correct odds to call on the turn as well.
The more I think about it the more I like a call on the flop and then raise the turn and make it 5:1 for them to call on the turn.
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#23
03-08-2007, 10:22 AM
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Re: A9s multiway with RIO
moral for marty : stop over thinking these things.
yeh, this is my first run through these kinds of maths. i'm a psychologist, not an engineer. it's going okay, but it's not easy, esp when i'm just learning from a book. it's only going to get tougher too.
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#24
03-08-2007, 10:23 AM
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Re: A9s multiway with RIO
I raise the flop to try force MP1 & 2 & BB out behind us. Forcing villains out improves our winning chances.
Assuming this works we can then take a free card on the turn if its offered or semi bluff bet a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#25
03-08-2007, 10:30 AM
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Re: A9s multiway with RIO
22 - That was my thinking also but what hands are you going to force out? - flush draws will still have odds to call and then the pot will be large enough that they have odds on the turn also
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#26
03-08-2007, 10:31 AM
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Re: A9s multiway with RIO
[ QUOTE ]
A-mann - has a point. If the flop bettor had also shown any aggression pre flop then I think it is a clear raise but raising is going to make it 7:1 to call and you are not going to fold any flush draws for that, and then they would likely still have correct odds to call on the turn as well. The more I think about it the more I like a call on the flop and then raise the turn and make it 5:1 for them to call on the turn. [/ QUOTE ] Which is still plenty for any FD, and ok for any OESD (which they'll likely have improved to with the 7), while you missed your chance to get value with a hand, that a) is a serious favourite on the flop and b) has little ways to improve later on.
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#27
03-08-2007, 10:38 AM
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Re: A9s multiway with RIO
Yeah fair point. I am flip-flopping all over the place on this one.
My main concern would be the tight passive betting in to us. I would say we are definitely behind on the flop. I remember that SSHE has a near similar hand where Hero holds 9To and recommends folding if a tight/passive bets in to us, but I agree I think the A and the BDFD improve that holding sufficiently to play on. How would you play Fret when the Turn comes 7h and the tight-passive continues to bet in to us?
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#28
03-08-2007, 10:46 AM
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Re: A9s multiway with RIO
I think I raise this flop for two reasons:
First, TPTK, with a backdoor nut flush draw has a lot of value. Second, YOU were the preflop raiser, and when all baby flops come, and someone bets into you, it is a good idea to defend with more hands than premium pairs. The benefit of getting heads up woudl be great, and if it is RR back to you, you are defining his hand when it is cheap, and you have a better idea of what you might need to beat him. Todd
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#30
03-08-2007, 11:13 AM
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Re: A9s multiway with RIO
Limp preflop, but raising can't be that bad since ATs is pretty much an auto-raise.
I would tend to raise on the flop (never folding here for one bet!) but this could be an example of "wait for a safe turn card to raise"...the problem with that being you don't know what's "safe" and you have a bunch of weak draws that could probably fold for 2 bets on the flop. River check behind is good, with 4 players in and ugly board. RIO applies more when the future bets are bigger proportional to the pot and your hand is more marginal. (e.g. T2o in the BB on a T-9-5 two-suited board with 4 SB in the pot) Here you have TPTK and BDFD in a large pot. Hence, play aggressively and don't fold unless it's clear you're beat.
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