pot odds question

[7stud]

I'm wondering about the correct approach to figuring out pot odds in a particular situation.

Assumptions:
1) $10-20 Holdem
2) Heads up on 4th street
3) Opponent bets $20 into a $60 pot (total = $80).
4) Opponent will bet 5th street 100% of the time.

Situation 1:
I have a draw to the nuts. I have to call a $20 bet now, and if I make my hand I will win $80 currently in the pot plus my opponent's $20 bet on 5th street. Therefore, the pot odds($80) + implied odds($20) are $100:$20 = 5:1. The $20 I put in the pot on 5th street to call is not at risk because I will only call if I make my hand, so it is excluded from the calculation.

Situation 2:
Same as above, but there is a pair on board. Now, I am suspicious that my opponent might have trips. Because of tells and what not, I decide there is only an 80% chance of winning if I make my hand. How do I calculate the pot odds now? Like this:

a) I have to call $20 to win the $80 in the pot. But I also have some implied odds on 5th street. On 5th street, I have an 80% chance of winning $20 or .8($20) = $16. On the other hand, I have a 20% chance of losing $20 more or .2($20) = $4. So, my expectation is that on 5th street, I will win an additional $16 - $4 = $12. As a result, I have to call $20 now to win $80(pot odds) + $12(implied odds), which are odds of $92:$20 = 4.6:1.

or

b) I risk $20 now and $20 on 5th street to win $80 in the pot now plus my opponents $20 bet on 5th street, giving me odds of $100:$40 = 2.5:1.

Which analysis is faulty and why?

TOP(p.52) says:
[ QUOTE ]
your implied odds are the ratio of your total expected win when your card hits to the present cost of calling a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Gazzbut]

You need to explain how many outs you have on the turn.

Say you have 9 outs to the nut flush obviously that is an easy call in the first example getting 5/1

In the second example you may discount your flush outs to 7 (which is just under 80%) because of the paired board. This means you need 6/1 to call. You are still only getting 5/1 but if you can find some extra value to your hand like an overcard to the board you can probabaly still make the call.

[7stud]

[ QUOTE ]
You need to explain how many outs you have on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
How many outs you have has nothing to do with what the pot odds are.

[Gazzbut]

No but it has everything to do with deciding whether to call or not...

[fuzz66]

you need to know how many outs you have

[fuzz66]

also, with flush draws, implied odds are not as relevant because thier more obvious

[HoneyBadger]

Nonsense, he wants to know what his implied odds are. Then you decide how many outs you have and whether it is enough. In practice you often measure reverse implied odds by discounting outs.

I think it is this. You either miss, or you hit. Then if you hit you have an expected return:

$100 * 0.8 - $20 * 0.2 = $76. you have to pay $20 now to win an expected $76, so your (reverse) implied odds are 1:3.8. I.e. if you hit 100 times on average you will win $76 every time you hit. So you total expected win given you hit is $76.

(oh I'm a little tipsy now but I think I'm right hehe. My stat is not at 100%...)

[fuzz66]

from TOP pge 58.....'' in addingthe possibility of future bets to the present pot to get your implied odds, you should take into account wether the strength of your hand is hidden.when the cards that help you are obvious, you cannot expect to get as much value out of your hand if you make it, since your opponents might not call when you bet.''

[HoneyBadger]

That's all very nice, but that's not what he is asking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] His question was well defined. Given 1, 2, 3, 4 and an 80% win chance, what are my implied odds? I believe them to be 3.8:1 for reasons explained.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Situation 1:
I have a draw to the nuts. I have to call a $20 bet now, and if I make my hand I will win $80 currently in the pot plus my opponent's $20 bet on 5th street. Therefore, the pot odds($80) + implied odds($20) are $100:$20 = 5:1. The $20 I put in the pot on 5th street to call is not at risk because I will only call if I make my hand, so it is excluded from the calculation.

[/ QUOTE ]
Calling with the nuts is definately leaving money at the table.

[ QUOTE ]
Situation 2:
Same as above, but there is a pair on board. Now, I am suspicious that my opponent might have trips. Because of tells and what not, I decide there is only an 80% chance of winning if I make my hand. How do I calculate the pot odds now?

[/ QUOTE ]
[80*0.8 + 20*0.8 - 20*0.2]:20
76:20

[ QUOTE ]
b) I risk $20 now and $20 on 5th street to win $80 in the pot now plus my opponents $20 bet on 5th street, giving me odds of $100:$40 = 2.5:1.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is incorrect. Becuase it's not taking into account any of the probabilities given. This is just the effective odds of a calldown and isn't taking any implied odds at all into consideration. Basically it's not correct since you're more likely than your opponent to win the last two BBs going into the pot and this calc isn't including that.