PS $100k AA river decision

JSchnett · #1 05-25-2007, 11:58 PM

I had been pretty laggy with my big stack. I think this is a pretty tough spot on the river because he isnt bluffing or valuebetting many hands but im getting 2.5-1 with a pretty underrepped hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO (t7489)
Button (t5840)
SB (t17830)
BB (t17805)
UTG (t3490)
Hero (t20240)
MP1 (t3175)
MP2 (t7535)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to t1200, 5 folds, BB calls t800.

Flop: (t2140) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t2000, BB calls t2000.

Turn: (t6140) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

River: (t6140) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets t4000, Hero?

Exitonly · #2 05-26-2007, 12:10 AM

yea i call. you're going to hear from sets much earlier, and there arent a whole lot of 7's in his range.

Superfluous Man · #3 05-26-2007, 12:23 AM

[ QUOTE ]
yea i call. you're going to hear from sets much earlier, and there arent a whole lot of 7's in his range.

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I also probably call because I am a huge station, but I'm not convinced it's the right play.

T7 gets there on the river. All of the pair+gutty hands that he may check-call got there either by making a boat or by making a straight. Also, probably get a flop checkraise from the hands we want to see here (TT+, top 2).

I guess if he's the type to c/c with FD + overs, he could be bluffing those. If we're ahead more than 29% of the time here, it's not by a lot.

I guess maybe you could add in some random "I PUT YOU ON AK" flop calls like middle pair or even top pair bad kicker, that he realizes are unlikely to win a showdown, and that would possibly push this more towards a call.

TheNewf · #4 05-26-2007, 12:55 AM

I also call, there's enough bluffs or worse hands that can value bet here to call with those odds.

NoahSD · #5 05-26-2007, 01:08 AM

I dunno.. I think it's a fold for the reasons SM gave. Give him a reasonable range preflop and flop and he's got a lot of hands on the river that crush us and can value bet and only a few hands that can bluff. No hands that can value bet that we beat, IMHO.

RandALLin · #6 05-26-2007, 01:40 PM

depending on how laggy you are playing of course, i like a call. Versus a random person here in the stuper you are valuebetted by a worse hand more frequently.

ItalianFX · #7 05-26-2007, 02:27 PM

You set up the river bluff on the turn. I'd call just because of that and expect to see JJ or QQ.

If villain is playing a set, he's not playing it like a set. Or at least I don't think he is. If he is putting you on TT+, then he could probably take a shot and figure you won't fold.

I could see maybe 66 here as the turn may have been a check-raise attempt. Overall though, I would think he thinks you are weak. I don't know if I can fold this.

bigballz · #8 05-26-2007, 02:30 PM

yea I just don't see how u could ever fold with the way the hand went down

nath · #9 05-26-2007, 02:41 PM

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You set up the river bluff on the turn. I'd call just because of that and expect to see JJ or QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why in the world would you expect JJ or QQ given how the action went down?

ItalianFX · #10 05-26-2007, 02:43 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You set up the river bluff on the turn. I'd call just because of that and expect to see JJ or QQ.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why in the world would you expect JJ or QQ given how the action went down?

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Called a preflop raise, check/called a flop bet, checked the turn, bet the river on perceived weakness.