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#1
09-10-2007, 12:16 PM
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Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
I made up a couple rules/guidelines to go by when picking in a survivor league. Obviously there will rarely be a game that satisfies each of these rules, but I think if you try to select games that match most of this criteria, you'll do just fine.
If you want to add your own guidelines or critique my own, feel free. From most important to least important. 1) DO pick a team that is far better than its opponent(Obviously) 2) Do NOT pick a team that is on the road. 3) Do NOT pick a game that features two rivals/teams that hate each other. 4) Do NOT pick an NFC team over an AFC team unless it's a Top 2-3 NFC team vs a Bottom 2-3 AFC team 5) Do NOT pick a game that features interdivisional opponents 6) Do NOT pick against a team that is coming off a bye week. I thought there were two games that fit into these guidelines this week, and if you picked either of them, you would have moved on to Week 2. Thoughts? Most of these were things I gleaned from reading this forum, so while it's probably old news for a lot of you, you still see stuff like "take Philly over GB" or "Jax over Tennessee". There are other strategies you can use, such as looking several weeks ahead to avoid handcuffing yourself if you're in a league where you can only pick a team once. But I think these 6 are a good starting point. 
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#2
09-10-2007, 01:12 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
Kyro,
Those 6 are my typical thought process when picking as well and great advice. OTOH, I picked Pitt over Clev this week and would like for you to explain why that wasn't the right pick (though results were nice). I agree with the advice above but sometimes some teams just don't have a chance IMO.
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#3
09-10-2007, 01:13 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
7. Look at Pinnacle.
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#4
09-10-2007, 02:23 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
7. Look at Pinnacle. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. I'd use the "biggest favorite that I havn't yet used" method against OP's method any day.
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#5
09-10-2007, 02:31 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 7. Look at Pinnacle. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. I'd use the "biggest favorite that I havn't yet used" method against OP's method any day. [/ QUOTE ] while I'm sure the books are smarter than me in regards to this stuff, I'd rather do my own work on it. Most of the time we're going to pretty much agree, anyways.
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#6
09-10-2007, 02:36 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
thremp,
Interesting. I'll take that into account from now on. Thanks. Your concept is pretty high-variance for an event that occurs once a year, though.
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#7
09-10-2007, 01:23 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
Kyro, Those 6 are my typical thought process when picking as well and great advice. OTOH, I picked Pitt over Clev this week and would like for you to explain why that wasn't the right pick (though results were nice). I agree with the advice above but sometimes some teams just don't have a chance IMO. [/ QUOTE ] I haven't checked when they play again, but if Pitt @ Clev is such a lock, then Pitt vs Clev should be even a larger lock. That's a very general way to put it, but if a team is a huge favorite on the road, they'll probably be a huge favorite at home against a team of similar talent. NE over the Jets was probably a "lock" as well, but since they were away, I thought saving them for several weeks down the road when they were at home against a worse team than the Jets was the better move.
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#8
09-10-2007, 01:34 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't checked when they play again, but if Pitt @ Clev is such a lock, then Pitt vs Clev should be even a larger lock. That's a very general way to put it, but if a team is a huge favorite on the road, they'll probably be a huge favorite at home against a team of similar talent. [/ QUOTE ] Valid. I am taking Chicago @ Oakland that week though (if I am still in obv)
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#9
09-10-2007, 02:00 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I haven't checked when they play again, but if Pitt @ Clev is such a lock, then Pitt vs Clev should be even a larger lock. That's a very general way to put it, but if a team is a huge favorite on the road, they'll probably be a huge favorite at home against a team of similar talent. [/ QUOTE ] Valid. I am taking Chicago @ Oakland that week though (if I am still in obv) [/ QUOTE ] You think that's stronger than Pitt at home against Cleveland? Cuz I don't. It could be a 6-3 victory for the raiders, you never know.
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#10
09-10-2007, 02:03 PM
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Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I haven't checked when they play again, but if Pitt @ Clev is such a lock, then Pitt vs Clev should be even a larger lock. That's a very general way to put it, but if a team is a huge favorite on the road, they'll probably be a huge favorite at home against a team of similar talent. [/ QUOTE ] Valid. I am taking Chicago @ Oakland that week though (if I am still in obv) [/ QUOTE ] I wouldn't do this. (because Chicago has KC at home this week, and KC is starting Damon Huard, among other things).
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