UFC 76

[milesdyson]

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I still think my Tavares bet was +EV. Anyone else think he won that fight?

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i thought tyson won the first round and tavares won the second round. the third round was very even to me with the takedowns and various sub attempts, and i've only watched the fight once. i knew it was going to tyson griffin after the third round, though. awesome fight though. i can't wait to see tavares with a few more fights under his belt. i think he has more potential than tyson.

[anatta]

Let me try to explain why I think strength is so important for smaller guys than bigger guys in MMA, maybe I am wrong here, maybe its common knowledge, I don't have a clue.

Take 2 fighters, Couture and Sherk, both very strong physically. Tell them to train for the say the NFL combine strength test of 225 bench for reps. Let say Couture cranks out 35, Sherk does 31 or something to that effect, sounds about right.

In the ring, Randy's opponent is going to weigh 225 or more usually. Sherk's will be 160 or so on fight night. You see where I am going here? Their strength is not that much different, a little man can get damn strong, not quite as strong as the bigger man, but close. It is basically impossible for a smaller guy to maintain position on a guy like Sherk, he just doesn't weigh enough. However, no matter how strong a heavyweight you are, if a good powerful wrestler who weighs 250 mounts you in the 3rd round of a fight, its big trouble.

[DannyOcean_]

- Forrest dominates Shogun yet lost to a lame, injured Tito and is KTFO'd by Jardine

- Shogun destroyed the current UFC LHW champ and beats Rog and Arona but gets schooled by Forrest

- Jardine gets KTFO by Alexander but beats Chuck

- Randy gets KTFO twice by LHW Chuck but beats Sylvia and the guy who destroyed CC

- CC destroyed Wand who destroyed Rampage twice who now destroyed Chuck twice, where Chuck also destroyed Randy twice who just took Gonzaga to school but we also now Gonzaga just ran over CC

- Rampage gets run over twice by Wand and once by Shogun, struggles past Lindland (MW), Yoon (noob) and Ninja but comes to destroy the longtime dominant UFC LHW champ with one punch in a fight that goes like 2 minutes

- Anderson Silva gets tapped by B fighter Takase, not only gets tapped to Chonan but has much of the fight to stand with Chonan and does not establish a clear upper hand but earns the UFC MW title in like a combined 5 minutes

Anderson also struggles somewhat to finish Lee Murray but takes Rich Franklin's belt like a kid

- Chonan, who stood toe to toe with Anderson gets KTFO in seconds by Baroni and Hendo

- Hendo gets outfoxed by Misaki

- Misaki gets beat at MW by longtime WW Frank Trigg who lost 4 recent fights at WW

- Hendo goes the distance with Rampage in a very tough, competite fight even though he just destroyed Wand who destoyed Rampage twice

- Nakamura struggles and barely takes down Machida but tosses Randleman on his ass twice with picture perfect tds

- Trigg destoyed Charuto and Hallman, 2 guys who either arguably beat Hughes or beat Hughes twice but Hughes of course owned Trigg twice

- CC has his way with big guys like Barnett twice and Aleks E but struggles and loses to Check Kongo and gets ran over by GG

- Bustamente takes Ramapage down where Randleman failed

- Dave Menne gets KTFO by Baroni in seconds though Menne has stood against and beat Pele

- Gomi get choked out in minutes by Aurelio who gets dominated by Ishida who gets destroyed by Gomi

-Nick Diaz has trouble hanging with the best in the UFC and schools Gomi.

............soooooo, what does this all mean for the UFC vs. Pride arguement, really?



Anyone want to argue with me about MMA variance again? Igetbadbeat, i took you off ignore. it was more annoying not seeing what you posted for whatever reason. But yeah, feel free to criticize my whole point that MMA variance is way higher anyone thinks. That's not really even a complete list btw. I don't think with two quality guys you can ever say that you are sure -350 is a good bet. maybe when cans are involved, but buyer beware. When you think you know exactly who will win, you get bitten.

But then, my theory would require that everyone not know everything all the time. I think part of the reason people don't like the whole "appeal to variance" idea on ridiculous lines is that it shows we really don't know as much as we think we do.

Which we don't.

[freck]

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I don't think with two quality guys you can ever say that you are sure -350 is a good bet. maybe when cans are involved, but buyer beware. When you think you know exactly who will win, you get bitten.


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I see your point, although I'm not sure that I agree. What do you estimate the 'true' line for Forrest vs Shogun was, at which price would you not have seen any value in betting Forrest?

[bigalt]

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Anyone want to argue with me about MMA variance again?

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While the rest of your argument may or may not be valid, this is not variance. You are talking about style matchups and people's development as fighters and game-planning.

[BriMc]

I think this is an excellent point. Also explains why Randy Couture has been so successful in his picks recently, having seen a lot of these guys train, and trained with them.

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dominated is a bit of a stretch, i think shogun was winning the first half of the fight, but from the mid 2nd round on shogun basically demonstrated the definition of the term "gassed," he pretty much looked like he was moving in slow motion

i don't think there is any doubt in anyone's mind that forrest trained harder and wanted this win more than his opponent

one of my first thoughts after this fight was wondering just how much value there is in seeing fighters train firsthand, i couldn't help thinking about how confident performify was in houston alexander after seeing him in person before his last fight and comparing that to the rumors that shogun appeared out of shape coming in to this fight

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[BriMc]

I think that until the judging criteria is clarified, it will be very difficult to make accurate assessments for betting purposes in fights like these two. When fighters are evenly matched, and there is a very good chance it will go to a decision with the majority of the fight spent on the ground and in transitions, its impossible to know what/how the judges will score. Right now it looks like the judges are favoring wrestling/dominant position over trying to finish the fight with subs. Since its so subjective, and there is no consistency, I have a hard time betting on these kind of fights.

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Sad that judges gave it to Fitch, actually thought Diego did a tad more to win it. But 30-27, ca mon.

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wow. i was dumbfounded when i heard it was a split decision. no way can you give diego two rounds of that fight.

also i overvalued tavares's performance vs. black and undervalued griffin's performance vs. guida. betting tyson was clearly right there.

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[MikeyPatriot]

DO,

1. Just gonna rip off bigalt here: "While the rest of your argument may or may not be valid, this is not variance. You are talking about style matchups and people's development as fighters and game-planning."

2. Why don't you go through the past 5 years and post all the times the favorite won?

3. Of course there's going to be variance, and the amount of variance has increased as the talent gap has started closing, but what does that have to do with finding value in a line? It seems like you're trying to say, "there's a lot of variance in MMA, so bet the underdog," which isn't a logical statement.

[MikeyPatriot]

re: Fitch/Sanchez, Griffin/Tavares, and judging

It'll never happen, but I wish the athletic commissions would allow judges to pick winners based on the overall fight. The ten point must system isn't that bad in terms of intuitiveness and simplicity, but it's awful if a guy dominates one round and does a lot of damage but loses on points in the other two rounds.

Also, every fight on the main card of a PPV should go 5 rounds.

[nearlyalex]

i'm not sure whether this is the right thread to post this but why doesn't mma use a ten point must system for striking and adcc like point system for grappling? although it would have to be modified to go with mma and then would have to be weighted in with the striking score. but would this system be to complex?