0.25/.50 LO8: nut flush on paired board

[nearlyalex]

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $2.70
UTG+1: $9.15
CO: $1
Hero: $6
SB: $6.65
BB: $3.45

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, CO calls, Hero calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5SB, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, Hero calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4.5BB, 4 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO is all-in $0.5</font>, Hero calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (8.5BB, 3 players + 1 all-in - Main pot: 8.5BB)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero ???


i am new to LO8 and omaha and was wondering should i fold this? my reason for calling was if he had set on the flop he would of most likely bet or raised. i had just sat down and had no reads.

[phishguy]

You are not necassarily pot commited.
I am going to say easy fold, even though I will probally get flamed for it.

[samwallistea]

Unless he is bluffing a missed low draw... factor in this and the good pot odds been offered, you could call this

[bbartlog]

I would call here. UTG+1 could easily be betting the non-nut club flush, figuring that neither Hero nor BB has shown any aggression and therefore a FH (and nut flush) is unlikely, and that someone will look him up with trips or even just two pair.

[I dunno]

Without a read I'm calling for information as much as I am for value. The low draw missed and a back door flush hit, so UTG+1 might think he can pick up the pot. He could also be incorrectly value betting a made flush, and maybe he did back into a full house or slow play a set. Having this knowledge is pretty valuable information in and of itself.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
i am new to LO8 and omaha and was wondering should i fold this?

[/ QUOTE ]nearlyalex - No.

UTG could have a full house, but he also could have trip sevens or a club flush (or anything).

It's one of those situations where the pot size is big enough to warrant a call. (You're getting about 9 to 1 to call. Does UTG have a full house more than nine times as often as something less? Of course it depends on UTG, but in general, I don't think so.)

[ QUOTE ]
my reason for calling was if he had set on the flop he would of most likely bet or raised. i had just sat down and had no reads.

[/ QUOTE ]Probably, but maybe not. Depends a lot on the particular opponent. Some (but not many) routinely slow play on the second betting round. Others sometimes slow play on the second betting round. And don't forget that he also could have flopped two pairs on the flop and then made a full house on the river.

But you're right that with a flopped set Villain probably should, and probably would bet. Good read.

Buzz

[RobNottsUk]

Generally you'ld only think of folding there, if it were a nut peddlar type, who likes to put minimum into pot, until the river when he has a sure-fire thing.

Short-handed, players like that probably won't stick around long.

[Tilt_Monkey]

I think the main mistake that you made was not to raise on the flop.

[redmarion]

The down and dirty answer.
Calling is a small error and cost you one big bet if you are wrong.

Folding the best hand is a big error &amp; could cost you 9.5BB.
This could be the difference in having a winning or loosing session.

If you fold the best hand, and you aren't going to win money this session, it will take you 19BB to ovecome the error. You have to cover the lost and the potential wins you could have made with those extra chips.

[RobNottsUk]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the main mistake that you made was not to raise on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Being prone to aggressive play, I considered that initially, but there's only 6 bets in the pot, and he has 2nd nut flush + nut Lo draw only.

Low stakes players are very willing to overcall for 1 bet, and when they have a bit of a hand on the turn, they won't fold when yours is made, perhaps feeling their 4th Nut Lo may be good, or their str8 (despite the flush possibility). If they make their hand on turn, they're not aggressive enough, so overall you benefit from keeping them in the pot with weak hands (increasing the liklihood of river mistakes).

With short-stack bettor on immediate right, you have no fold equity, you'll still get called by the Nut Flush, and over Nut Lo, so there's no promotion or semi-bluff fold equity.

Similarly on turn, keeping the likely bluffer in the pot, improves the implied odds of your draw.

Against some players, I'd actually raise on the river, expecting them to call with very poor hands even when they knew they were bluffing. That's the problem with the OP's question, sometimes I'd fold, usually call and othertimes value raise.

But bottom line is, poor players generally don't make mistakes when they're folding, so it's more profitable often to keep them in the pot with weak hands.