20 45 FTP Bubble Hand

[emeraldice]

Hey, sorry HH on other computer. Essentially this-

6 Pay, 7 Left.
Villain has just doubled up w/ AQ vs AK, had been very short so has been playing pretty standard shortstack poker, shoving unopened etc. etc.
I am chipleader w/ 18,0000. Villain on button has 10,000.
A shortstack has 2300.
Villain, now having a decent stack for the first time in a while, opens on button to 2400 (3x).
I have J8hh in sb and reraise enough to put him all in.
Thoughts?

[4CardStraight]

I dont think this is a terrible resteal.

Our cards surely arent likely better than his range, so we are really looking for fold equity here.

Is he likely raising somewhat wide ? Yes he is on the button, making a 3x std raise, but possibly he is tight, he has only shown good hands, he might not be raising super wide.

Is he likely calling tight? Yes, we are on the bubble, he just fought like heck to get chips, and we are pushing enough so that he really has to think he is ahead to make a call, the blind overlay is not huge compared to his stack, and he can fold and still be triple the short stack.

All in all, I think this is a reasonable spot... resteals are extremely read based. You know better than us what his likely range is to open and what his range is to fold pre. If he is raising almost twice as many hands as he would call with then yes this is perfectly acceptable. Especailly since our cards are pretty too! We have cards that have somewhat ok equity against a top hand range. And if we lose we still have 8k.

All in all, I think I like.

4Card

[flyingmoose]

I usually like plays like this, but I don't like it this time. He's raised 1/4 his chips so he's priced in with anything reasonable.

[emeraldice]

He's raised 1/4 his chips but he's going to have a hard time calling on the bubble after he just doubled up w/o a premium hand here yeah? especially w/ a shortstack.
say he has 15k and makes same raise, better shove?

[levAA]

with the shortstack on the table this is standard i think.

[flyingmoose]

I think you guys are overestimating the effect of the shortstack when you're playing for such a large percent of the total chips. If he calls and wins he'll have almost 1/3 of the chips in play. There would have to be a crazy flat payout structure or he'd have to be a pretty weak player to care more about cashing than winning at this point.

Now there are definitely times to make this move because a lot of tournament players play way too weak in bubble situations. However I'm not just going to assume that this dude is one of them. Our only read is that he shortstacked appropriately! So it's even less likely than against a random that he would be a weak player.