Calculating "edge" in NBA totals

dudeimstoked · #1 11-15-2007, 01:16 PM

I'm working on a system for the NBA and don't have any good way of calculating how much of an edge, if any, that I may have for game totals.

ex/
book posts a line of 188
i generate a "true line" of 195

how much of an edge/how many units on this game, if any?

B00T · #2 11-15-2007, 02:01 PM

look at pinny's dropdown menus for the value of each point

factor in your perceived % edge, Kelly criterion, units, limits, or whatever.

if your system is coming in 7 full points off of the books, I would have serious doubts about it

rjp · #3 11-15-2007, 03:39 PM

"look at pinny's dropdown menus for the value of each point"

This is a good place to start, but make sure you're using the dropdown properly. The dropdowns are built with the assumption that the posted odds represents the true mean.

If the line is indeed X number of points off, then the number 189 is going to (in this case) be worth less then what the dropdown shows.

Austiger · #4 11-15-2007, 04:06 PM

I've been wondering the same thing about CBB Totals. My system right now is:

5-9 points off = 1 unit
9.5-13.5 = 2 units
>13.5 = 3 units.

These are rough numbers for totals from 135-147 or so and I manipulate them a little based on the number. For example, if I cap a game at 178 and it comes out 183, I'm probably not going to play it, but a number of 115 that I have capped at 120 will always be a play. Other factors influence it as well. These aren't hard and fast rules for me. (I feel better about betting opening lines than closing lines for one thing.)

Any thoughts?

rjp · #5 11-15-2007, 04:18 PM

I know college totals move a lot, but how many games do you identify to be >13.5 points off?

Austiger · #6 11-15-2007, 05:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I know college totals move a lot, but how many games do you identify to be >13.5 points off?

[/ QUOTE ]

I just revised the system this morning to include the 3 unit level. Up until last night I was going either one or two units. Looking back, there have been 6 games so far that have been off by 13 or more. I was 5-1 on those, although one (UNC/Davidson) was a high number and exactly 13 off so it would have been 2 units.