Good spot for a bluff? (50 NL)

[members_only]

Villain is playing 19/9 after about 35 hands. Seems ok. Haven't previously tangled with him or seen him do anything of interest.

I check the flop as it doesn't seem very good to fire on. On the turn my gutshot becomes an oesd. I raise because I think villain's lead can be a lot of marginal hands, and because the implied odds of calling are poor (the double flush draw means my outs are not clean, and if I hit a 9 it will put a 4-straight on the board.)

What do you think of a river bluff?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

<font color="#C00000">Hero ($52)</font>
SB ($79.75)
<font color="#C00000">BB ($77.05)</font>
UTG ($43.25)
MP ($50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($4.25) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $10</font>, BB calls $7.

River: ($24.25) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks

[homeslice]

I would have just called the turn

[Frinkenstein]

Don't know about the river bluff... I tend to be unsure in those spots.

I tell you what though, I'd CBet that flop most of the time.

[STARSCREAM.]

Cbet that flop about 60% of the time, check the other 40%, player dependant of course, here betting is fine, as is checking.

I hate the turn raise, I just fold to his bet. Your draw is weak and he's not likely folding to anything that he would initially lead with. He could have had a wiffed flop CR, in which case you're never getting him to fold.

[wooziephantom]

Can anyone that says checking the flop (and why it's not a good flop to fire on) enlighten me?

[Bren]

I don't think it's that out of line against a reasonably tight player. It depends for me on villians flop and turn habits, you do find a lot of marginal one pair hands in this spot that can't take the heat.

That said you're essentially building a pot so you can steal it on the next street, given the state of the board it's hard to know what the scare cards would be for villian on the river. I'd give up here as things have good chance of getting ugly on the end.

[JimboNYY24]

I really doubt he folds top pair after calling the turn. However, I think more of his range is flush draws, I'd bet like half the pot to get him to fold it.

[bozzer]

i think the 7s is a bad card to bluff on, but bluffing might be profitable, idk.

the problem is that his pf range is presumably quite tight so he doesn't have that many weak kings in his range i suspect. a bluff here mostly only succeeds against a a draw/draw+weak made, and i'm not sure how much of his range this is.

this is one of those spots where i time down trying to work out whether to bluff and then check and get shown some disgusting pair.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
Cbet that flop about 60% of the time, check the other 40%, player dependant of course, here betting is fine, as is checking.

I hate the turn raise, I just fold to his bet. Your draw is weak and he's not likely folding to anything that he would initially lead with. He could have had a wiffed flop CR, in which case you're never getting him to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeh, basically. this flop isn't so bad against this player to bet on (it hits your range harder than his!), and we have a g/s wch for some reason makes me more inclined to bet.

with the turn, i think you have to know your player. if he can donk weak (like simon) then you can raise. but against most 19/9s i'm thinking fold.