Settle this Baseball Argument

[DrewDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
drew,

honestly, have you read any of this thread?

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I sorta skimmed most of it, but I don't understand all the roto/stat geek stuff that well, so I used my "appeal to authority" argument.

I may be wrong, but Augie is a very smart baseball man.

I'll get out of the sandbox now.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the key word is "significantly." I don't argue that Braun and Fielder are better hitters than Hall, but not "significantly." Not "waaaaaaaaaaay" better.

Hall did poorly in the beginning of the season, but he started doing well about 3 weeks before he went on the DL. For someone who hit <.240 in April, he's made a nice turnaround to get to >.270 (power numbers are down, though). He has also been much more clutch (no numbers to back this up, just observation) than either Braun or Fielder. In fact, as tremendous as Braun has been, he has been utterly miserable in key situations from about the 7th inning on in the last few weeks. Fielder hasn't been much of a factor for a month, although he is keeping his average right in the .280 range.

Braun has been awesome. I love him. But I don't think we can say he is "significantly" better than Hall based on such a small sample size. He hasn't even been in the bigs for the entire season. Lest we forget, Hall hit close to .300 two seasons ago and then hit 35 HR's last year.

Again, not saying Braun and Fielder aren't better hitters than Hall - they are great so far and are two of my favorite players already - but they aren't leaps and bounds better.

And Hall is definitely better than Hardy.

But I digress. Back to the bunting discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think significant means in the context of differentiating between hitters?

IMO Hall and Braun should both produce similar OBPs (i.e. similar LD numbers and similar BB numbers and neither are slow, although Braun's greater power should lead to a slightly higher BABIP assuming the same batted ball split), yet Braun hits for more power.

Do you disagree Braun hits with more power than Hall? Is this difference not significant? What would be a significant difference (quantified in terms of slugging difference between each's respective "true talent" level).

(BTW, although not relevant to this debate, Braun is 4 years younger and doing this in his first ML season. He should get better)

I'm not sure how to respond to the "he hit .300 a couple of years ago" argument other than to point out BA in isolation isn't very instructive on the issue at hand and Braun is hitting 347 while Hall's best BA is .291.

Regarding Hall's power output last year, both his HR/FB and FB% were way above his historical totals, and both are way down this year. Yes, Hall hit 35 home runs last year, and yes, Ryan Braun is one pace to have a more productive season that Hall did last year. Braun may be running hot this year, but so did hall last year (when he also Ked 30% of the time and had a LD% below 20).



I don't really care to debate your assertion that Fielder is not a significantly better hitter than Hall. I think that is a facially nuts argument, but to each his own.

[stormstarter28]

Bunting: 60% of the time, it works every time.

[vhawk01]

[ QUOTE ]
well if you would bunt ruth there you must be very drunk

but the problem with all of these formulas are they are not an exact science and never will be and the 2-3 % diffeerence they show one way or the other can be margin of error
I dont care what a bunch of guys with similar jeter have done over the last 100 years in that spot-
He might be slower or faster than them, a better or worse bunter etc.
The infielders might react well in this spot or you could have ty wigginton fielding the ball
The pitcher might have trouble throwing strikes after intenionall walk someone or he might have maddux like control.
The guy who will bat with the bases loaded might not handle the bat well or be capable of adjusting to the situation.
My gut would say to bunt but its going to be close to break even- but there is no way this book can be accurate with so man factors that can never be accounted for.

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Right, so AFTER having done all the analysis and figuring out exactly how close it is in a generic scenario, a good manager can then use his expertise and additional knowledge to tweak it a little bit and make up that 2 or 3% margin of error.

Or he can just guess and make [censored] up and do 'what he has always done' and give up way more than any 2 or 3% edge except perhaps in this one lucky scenario in which he's stumbled upon the optimal strategy by dumb luck.

[shemp]

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a good manager can then use his expertise and additional knowledge to tweak it a little bit and make up that 2 or 3% margin of error.

[/ QUOTE ]

The point I and others make is that that 2% gap in the data may already reflect that additional knowledge is being correctly applied-- by both bunting people more likely to fail at hitting, and hitting people either more likely to fail when bunting or dominantly more likely to end the game with their at bat.

[Vyse]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the key word is "significantly." I don't argue that Braun and Fielder are better hitters than Hall, but not "significantly." Not "waaaaaaaaaaay" better.

Hall did poorly in the beginning of the season, but he started doing well about 3 weeks before he went on the DL. For someone who hit <.240 in April, he's made a nice turnaround to get to >.270 (power numbers are down, though). He has also been much more clutch (no numbers to back this up, just observation) than either Braun or Fielder. In fact, as tremendous as Braun has been, he has been utterly miserable in key situations from about the 7th inning on in the last few weeks. Fielder hasn't been much of a factor for a month, although he is keeping his average right in the .280 range.

Braun has been awesome. I love him. But I don't think we can say he is "significantly" better than Hall based on such a small sample size. He hasn't even been in the bigs for the entire season. Lest we forget, Hall hit close to .300 two seasons ago and then hit 35 HR's last year.

Again, not saying Braun and Fielder aren't better hitters than Hall - they are great so far and are two of my favorite players already - but they aren't leaps and bounds better.

And Hall is definitely better than Hardy.

But I digress. Back to the bunting discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think significant means in the context of differentiating between hitters?

IMO Hall and Braun should both produce similar OBPs (i.e. similar LD numbers and similar BB numbers and neither are slow, although Braun's greater power should lead to a slightly higher BABIP assuming the same batted ball split), yet Braun hits for more power.

Do you disagree Braun hits with more power than Hall? Is this difference not significant? What would be a significant difference (quantified in terms of slugging difference between each's respective "true talent" level).

(BTW, although not relevant to this debate, Braun is 4 years younger and doing this in his first ML season. He should get better)

I'm not sure how to respond to the "he hit .300 a couple of years ago" argument other than to point out BA in isolation isn't very instructive on the issue at hand and Braun is hitting 347 while Hall's best BA is .291.

Regarding Hall's power output last year, both his HR/FB and FB% were way above his historical totals, and both are way down this year. Yes, Hall hit 35 home runs last year, and yes, Ryan Braun is one pace to have a more productive season that Hall did last year. Braun may be running hot this year, but so did hall last year (when he also Ked 30% of the time and had a LD% below 20).



I don't really care to debate your assertion that Fielder is not a significantly better hitter than Hall. I think that is a facially nuts argument, but to each his own.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a straight up comparison. Hall plays CF. Braun plays 3B. So Hall can be behind as a hitter and still have comparable value.

I really don't think any intelligent person would say that Braun is "significantly" better than Hall.

[dlk9s]

Anyway, back to the bunting question.

As with all things in life, the correct answer is "it depends." [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Dids]

I would like to thank the Angles for not reading this thread and not preforming as expected wrt to all of the win expectancy charts above. GO M'S!

[legend42]

[ QUOTE ]
A lot more butns fail then result in infield hits/errors

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Are there stats on this? It instinctually seems true, especially when you consider the negative effect of missing/fouling a couple attempts and having to hit with two strikes.

But Bill James wrote an essay on bunting a long time ago titled something like "Rolling in the Grass" (which, of course I can't find now). His conclusion was that it is correct to bunt a lot more often than he originally thought. The main reason was that a lot of good results can happen from a bunt attempt, aside from a basic successful sacrifice: hits, errors, a fielder unsuccessfully trying to get the lead runner, etc. And the good results outweighed the bad results of an unsuccessful attempt, maybe not in terms of frequency but in terms of degree.

[J.R.]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think the key word is "significantly." I don't argue that Braun and Fielder are better hitters than Hall, but not "significantly." Not "waaaaaaaaaaay" better.

Hall did poorly in the beginning of the season, but he started doing well about 3 weeks before he went on the DL. For someone who hit <.240 in April, he's made a nice turnaround to get to >.270 (power numbers are down, though). He has also been much more clutch (no numbers to back this up, just observation) than either Braun or Fielder. In fact, as tremendous as Braun has been, he has been utterly miserable in key situations from about the 7th inning on in the last few weeks. Fielder hasn't been much of a factor for a month, although he is keeping his average right in the .280 range.

Braun has been awesome. I love him. But I don't think we can say he is "significantly" better than Hall based on such a small sample size. He hasn't even been in the bigs for the entire season. Lest we forget, Hall hit close to .300 two seasons ago and then hit 35 HR's last year.

Again, not saying Braun and Fielder aren't better hitters than Hall - they are great so far and are two of my favorite players already - but they aren't leaps and bounds better.

And Hall is definitely better than Hardy.

But I digress. Back to the bunting discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

What do you think significant means in the context of differentiating between hitters?

IMO Hall and Braun should both produce similar OBPs (i.e. similar LD numbers and similar BB numbers and neither are slow, although Braun's greater power should lead to a slightly higher BABIP assuming the same batted ball split), yet Braun hits for more power.

Do you disagree Braun hits with more power than Hall? Is this difference not significant? What would be a significant difference (quantified in terms of slugging difference between each's respective "true talent" level).

(BTW, although not relevant to this debate, Braun is 4 years younger and doing this in his first ML season. He should get better)

I'm not sure how to respond to the "he hit .300 a couple of years ago" argument other than to point out BA in isolation isn't very instructive on the issue at hand and Braun is hitting 347 while Hall's best BA is .291.

Regarding Hall's power output last year, both his HR/FB and FB% were way above his historical totals, and both are way down this year. Yes, Hall hit 35 home runs last year, and yes, Ryan Braun is one pace to have a more productive season that Hall did last year. Braun may be running hot this year, but so did hall last year (when he also Ked 30% of the time and had a LD% below 20).



I don't really care to debate your assertion that Fielder is not a significantly better hitter than Hall. I think that is a facially nuts argument, but to each his own.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not a straight up comparison. Hall plays CF. Braun plays 3B. So Hall can be behind as a hitter and still have comparable value.

I really don't think any intelligent person would say that Braun is "significantly" better than Hall.

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow. Some of the brightest binds in baseball analysis, from Tango to Clay Davenport, would disagree. Hitters are hitters. Many believe the proper way to do adjustment is on the fielding side of things. To quote Tom Tango and his agreement with Clay Davenport on this matter:

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I agree with Clay’s premise that the adjustment shouldn’t come from the hitting stats. After all, that assumes that the avg 3B = avg 2B = avg 1B, etc. This makes no sense to blindly accept that. After all the avg QB does not equal the avg offensive tackle. Nor is it even true that the avg SS = avg 2B in high school. Therefore, what would make it so at the MLB level? (And, in 2006, the avg 3B was better than the avg 2B.)

[/ QUOTE ]

That said, the issue at hand is who is a better hitter, not which player provides more value compared to the average or replacement level of offense at their position. The original issue is whether a particular hitter should be bunting or swinging away in a particular situation, and what position a player plays is irrelevant to that consideration, while what the hitter can do with a bat in his hand *is* relevant to that situation.

I'm glad you don't think I am intelligent. Since apparently I'm dumb, you should easily be able to the points I've raised.

If you wish to respond with some sort of garbage PrOPS based argument that their K, BB and batted ball numbers are similar, and thus the only difference in their batting lines is due to BABIP luck, perhaps you should stop worrying about how smart or dumb you think other people may be and instead reflect on your own ignorance.

Here is a link to a discussion on "The Book Blog" that addresses the many shortcommings of a PrOPS based anaylsis. A sample:

[ QUOTE ]
First, the premise of PrOPS is that departures from the mean hit rate on each batted ball type are luck. So if you control for BIP type, you have a ‘true’ measure of how well a player hit. However, we know this isn’t correct—hitters vary greatly in terms of their BABIP and SLGBIP on a given type of BIP

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
PrOPS poor predictive performance is not surprising. It essentially tries to regress factors in the following way:
LD% 0%
GB/FB 0%
Ks 0%
HRs 0%
BBs 0%
BA-LD 100%
SLG-LD 100%
BA-FB 100%
SLG-FB 100%
BA-GB 100%
SLG-GB 100%

Now, one thing we know is that every number here is wrong—none of these performances are pure luck or pure skill, so the correct regression will be somewhere between 0 and 100 for each element. Then you have the possibility of additional errors introduced by using multiple regression to guage the value of BBs, HRs, Ks, which can be determined empirically.

Batted-ball data may eventually help improve projections on the margin. I don’t think we know that yet. But PrOPS clearly doesn’t take us there.

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A more reasoned, meaningful, and statistically variated method for looking at batted ball data and BABIP If Line drives could speak

Here is a link to a repository of batted ball data from 02-05. Does it really surprise anyone that a Chone Figgins line drive is worth less runs than a line Drive by Vladimir Guererro? Or That Vladdy's fly balls are worth a whole lot more than fly balls for Chone Figgins. PrOPS says that's luck. PrOPS's conclusion is nuts to anybody who watched these two guys hit, Vladdy's line drives and flyballs > Chone Figgins line drives and flyballs.