Flat betting v. varying bet size question (and a poll!)

[Freerollin`]

So I'm thumbing through my sharp sports betting book, and I look at the section on bet sizing for the first time in a long time.

Wong advocates betting on faves to win one unit (which I do), i.e., laying $130 on a -130 baseball fave (for my examples, I'm using $100 as 1 unit), and doing the same thing with dogs, i.e. betting $80 to win $100 on a +125 dog.

I always did what he suggested with faves, but not with dogs, where I would always lay one unit, i.e. laying $100 to win $125 in the above example. This, of course, was a general rule, and I would deviate occasionally.

Do others here bet similarly to my system, or Wong's?

[RikaKazak]

I just bet a flat amount...then win whatever it is. So I bet $100 on fav's...$100 on dogs.

[Homer]

I never understood why someone would just flat bet. Betting an amount proportional to your edge only seems logical. I mean, if in one game you have a 5% edge and in another 10%, you should be betting more on the second game, right?

[jmillerdls]

I always bet 1 unit...whether it's a favorite or a dog.

[jmillerdls]

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I never understood why someone would just flat bet. Betting an amount proportional to your edge only seems logical. I mean, if in one game you have a 5% edge and in another 10%, you should be betting more on the second game, right?

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I'd be very impressed if someone can accurately assess when they have these different edges.

[Freerollin`]

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I never understood why someone would just flat bet. Betting an amount proportional to your edge only seems logical. I mean, if in one game you have a 5% edge and in another 10%, you should be betting more on the second game, right?

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I'd be very impressed if someone can accurately assess when they have these different edges.

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Agreed. Plus, if you bet one unit on a minimum edge (say, 5%), what do you do when you have what you perceive is a 20% edge? Quadruple your original bet? That's the road to busto, IMO.

[almostbusto]

its fairly important from a bankroll perspective to take wong's advice when you are betting a lot of longshots. ie if you made a ton of world series futures bets or pennant/division bets. you could end up with 1/5 of your bankroll resting on 20 to 1 shots otherwise. since i have other sources of income, i like taking a more aggressive than normal betting approach so i bet one unit one a +150 line normally (not that that is particularly aggressive).

[Homer]

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I never understood why someone would just flat bet. Betting an amount proportional to your edge only seems logical. I mean, if in one game you have a 5% edge and in another 10%, you should be betting more on the second game, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be very impressed if someone can accurately assess when they have these different edges.

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Obviously, it's all estimating, but I'm sure pro cappers can tell when they have a small edge versus a large one.

[Homer]

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I never understood why someone would just flat bet. Betting an amount proportional to your edge only seems logical. I mean, if in one game you have a 5% edge and in another 10%, you should be betting more on the second game, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd be very impressed if someone can accurately assess when they have these different edges.

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Agreed. Plus, if you bet one unit on a minimum edge (say, 5%), what do you do when you have what you perceive is a 20% edge? Quadruple your original bet? That's the road to busto, IMO.

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I'm sure there is a way to remain risk-averse while taking into account different perceived edges.

[pocketjesuits]

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I'd be very impressed if someone can accurately assess when they have these different edges.

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Well, it's pretty easy if you handicap the lines yourself (or have someone who does it for you).

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Agreed. Plus, if you bet one unit on a minimum edge (say, 5%), what do you do when you have what you perceive is a 20% edge? Quadruple your original bet? That's the road to busto, IMO.

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You would use the Kelly formula, or the reduce the variance a fractional Kelly formula. You can theoretically never go bust, although you can experience extremely harsh downswings.