UFC 76

[eddieP]

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HAHAHAHAHA

I WAS MOCKED FOR PICKING FORREST

BOOOOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Note: I haven't actually seen the fights yet [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
was occupied tonight. The recap i read said pretty much 30-27 griffin, and he got his sub in the last minute of a fight he dominated. I'm basking in sweet victory for this one. And also looking for a place to watch it online fo free.

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If I read correctly, you were not bashed for picking forrest. You were bashed for picking forrest with relatively weak reasoning. One of the contradictions to your pick actually gave valid reasons why Forrest might win, I remember because it was that post that swayed me to putting some action of Forrest. Tyson Griffin and Fitch were good money tonight too.

[J.C. Alvarado]

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Like I said earlier in this thread if someone thinks there is value in a fight and don't bet it because of likes or dislikes they are holding thereself back. Regardless if someone is a pro poker player who makes $300 an hour or if they are just a small bettor. Can't believe people actually want to argue that [censored]. LOL.

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Thats stupid unless you're a proffessional sports bettor. If I like someone enough to enjoy the fight without betting why should I bet against him just for a little value bet? I make more than enough playing poker and the 300 or 1k bet I make is pretty meaningless. If I bet its for enjoyment only, I'll only bet if the dude I like is a dog getting a decent price, or if I dont know either of the guys and I feel I can make a good bet to make the fight more exciting. I dont see anything wrong with that.

[J.C. Alvarado]

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Talk about an ironic title for the event.

I hope they call an upcoming event "UFC XX: Decision", so 4/5 won't go the distance.

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lol I didnt even think of that....thats pretty funny. 15 seconds more and all 5 go the distance..

[DannyOcean_]

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If I read correctly, you were not bashed for picking forrest. You were bashed for picking forrest with relatively weak reasoning. One of the contradictions to your pick actually gave valid reasons why Forrest might win, I remember because it was that post that swayed me to putting some action of Forrest. Tyson Griffin and Fitch were good money tonight too.

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lol... calling my reasoning weak isn't being bashed? Especially when said reasoning is exactly correct?

One of my main points that was bashed

"MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better."

People gave me crap for this but i still believe it. Look at all the upsets happening this year. And certain people go back and rewrite history (for instance, people claiming GG over CC was not really an upset at the time lol), but i believe people are putting way too much money on big favorites all around, especially with strikers. Also especially with Pride/UFC contests. Look how different Shogun looked. You can't tell me that changing to the Octagon with a cage, different rules, etc didnt matter... He was just a different looking fighter. Since that is always a possibility, and has manifested itself in numerous fights where people "don't look like themselves" (shogun, CC, gomi) higher variance fights.

Also, people talked about how shogun would win this fight 95% of the time and would outbox the crap out of forrest. I countered that i thought forrest's stand up was better than everyone else did. People continue to say "ZOMG Shogun has 5x better stand up"

I'd say i feel pretty damn good. I don't see much weak reasoning.

[svj]

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Normally, I would say that two strikers can't really have more than a 75% chance of a win

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I think that about covers it.



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However, I expect Chuck to do his usual counter-punch, and Jardine to charge right into it, flailing wildly.

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Well, that's what I get for breaking my own rules.
Ah well, still made 3u+... good enough.

[selurah]

Post deleted by Performify

[MikeyPatriot]

I got really sloppy drunk at the bar and don't really remember much clearly after Fitch/Diego. Shogun getting tapped out pushed me over the edge and I threw up a bunch, though. Can't believe Jardine ruined Wandy/Chuck. THANKS DANA!

[valdosta]

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Like I said earlier in this thread if someone thinks there is value in a fight and don't bet it because of likes or dislikes they are holding thereself back. Regardless if someone is a pro poker player who makes $300 an hour or if they are just a small bettor. Can't believe people actually want to argue that [censored]. LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats stupid unless you're a proffessional sports bettor. If I like someone enough to enjoy the fight without betting why should I bet against him just for a little value bet? I make more than enough playing poker and the 300 or 1k bet I make is pretty meaningless. If I bet its for enjoyment only, I'll only bet if the dude I like is a dog getting a decent price, or if I dont know either of the guys and I feel I can make a good bet to make the fight more exciting. I dont see anything wrong with that.

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Yeah,yeah everyone here makes a ton playing poker. Like that somehow justifies saying stupid stuff and costing yourself money.

[anatta]

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If I read correctly, you were not bashed for picking forrest. You were bashed for picking forrest with relatively weak reasoning. One of the contradictions to your pick actually gave valid reasons why Forrest might win, I remember because it was that post that swayed me to putting some action of Forrest. Tyson Griffin and Fitch were good money tonight too.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol... calling my reasoning weak isn't being bashed? Especially when said reasoning is exactly correct?

One of my main points that was bashed

"MMA betting is not yet a science like baseball betting is, and i'm guessing the randomness of it often outweighs our perceptions of who is better."

People gave me crap for this but i still believe it. Look at all the upsets happening this year. And certain people go back and rewrite history (for instance, people claiming GG over CC was not really an upset at the time lol), but i believe people are putting way too much money on big favorites all around, especially with strikers. Also especially with Pride/UFC contests. Look how different Shogun looked. You can't tell me that changing to the Octagon with a cage, different rules, etc didnt matter... He was just a different looking fighter. Since that is always a possibility, and has manifested itself in numerous fights where people "don't look like themselves" (shogun, CC, gomi) higher variance fights.

Also, people talked about how shogun would win this fight 95% of the time and would outbox the crap out of forrest. I countered that i thought forrest's stand up was better than everyone else did. People continue to say "ZOMG Shogun has 5x better stand up"

I'd say i feel pretty damn good. I don't see much weak reasoning.

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Just read this post, I haven't followed the background and know nothing about the bashing or whatnot. I will say that I have thought about the "not yet a science" nature, and I think you might be on to something. I'll admit that my support means little, I know very little about MMA, just a fan, and less about betting on it. But I play winning poker and do watch all the fights, so FWIW, I agree.

Actually it seems to me that you guys can just bet the underdog, especially if the dog is the bigger man (Kongo, Jardine, Forrest, Rampage v Chuck) , and do just fine.

[bigalt]

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Actually it seems to me that you guys can just bet the underdog, especially if the dog is the bigger man (Kongo, Jardine, Forrest, Rampage v Chuck) , and do just fine.

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That's not a bad notion. Unfortunately it's pretty hard to gauge before they fight a lot of the time. You could go by weight for the heavyweights, but who would have thunk Couture, giving up x pounds, would manhandle Gonzaga in what basically looked like a strength-based competition.