Two Plus Two Newer Archives Determining the probability that you're a winning player
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#1
11-26-2007, 09:01 PM
 jesse8888 Senior Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: Missing bets with King high Posts: 833
Determining the probability that you\'re a winning player

I play live limit texas holdem and would like to determine the probability that I am a winning player. What information do I need to do this? I have heard that for solid, TAG play the standard deviation for an hour of play is around 15 big bets. Is that true? That seems massive to me....If I assume this to be true, how do I apply it to the fact that I have won X big bets in Y hours to generate a probability distribution for my true win rate?

In case I haven't been clear so far, I'm looking to come up with statements such as the following:

There is an X percent chance that I am a losing player.
There is a Y percent chance that my true win rate is above .5 big bets per hour.
There is a Z percent chance that my true win rate is above 1 big bet per hour.

Mods, please move this if you feel I've posted in the wrong forum.