The Well: N 82 50 24 (10.03.07)

[N 82 50 24]

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Wow, 5,000-10,000 subscribers when you launched the site. How many subs did it peak at and what level of monthly average does it get? I'm wondering if it's grown a lot bigger or tapered off.

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No, users. I don't want to release subscriber data, but whe sold to BLUFF with like 95,000 users. Now we have like 130,000.

[N 82 50 24]

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Are you playing in the 'Bluff Invitational' at the office today? How do you like your chances? Will you pay me on the side if I cause Morris to throw chips or break something?

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I don't know if I'm playing, not so sure of the details. And we can probably work something out re: Morris. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[yi style]

When you started out, what was your opinion of luck vs. skill in tournaments? Is it different from your opinion now? Do you think one's expectation in a tournament can ever be deduced strictly from results? And if so, how many tournaments do you think one needs to play in order to reach the "long-run"?

[N 82 50 24]

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When you started out, what was your opinion of luck vs. skill in tournaments? Is it different from your opinion now? Do you think one's expectation in a tournament can ever be deduced strictly from results? And if so, how many tournaments do you think one needs to play in order to reach the "long-run"?

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When I started out, I didn't know [censored]. I wasn't even thinking about that type of thing. By the time I knew enough to think about it, I was convinced that poker was mainly skill. And I still believe that. I think that there are many people who have skewed results due to luck, but that's because of buyin differences. I think most people who play, say, 1/2 NL have results based on their skill level over even relatively short periods of time, such as a couple of months. Of course there are exceptions, but I'm a big believer that skill predominates way more often than a lot of people think. I don't have math to back that up though, so I'm mainly just saying what I "guess" to be the case.

In terms of expectation, you can never know it. Of course, if you played the exact same tournament over and over with the same conditions, you would eventually converge on your true win/loss rate. But the thing is, conditions change. Games get harder or easier. Fields get bigger and smaller. You are more or less distracted by outside situations. And so on. So you really never play the exact same event and because every change has some sort of change (however small) on your expectation, you can never know what it is. To know your expectation in something such as the $109r down to, say, within 10 dollars, you need to play it so many times that by the time you've gotten to that point, the conditions are so different you can't know what to "expect."

I don't think there is a long-run to be reached. As I said, you'll never play a "long-run worth" number of events. So whatever the number is, you can't get there.

All of the above being said, I don't think it's too hard to make a guess about whether you're a winner in the long run in an event. If you're consistently feeling outplayed, then don't play it. And if your "win rate" in the Sunday Million is $25, $50, $200 or $800 (all on $215), then so be it. You can never know where you "really" stand.

[RandALLin]

Step by step, what do I need to do to buy www.RandALLin.com for my blog to be hosted?

Is the new whip everything you hoped it could be?

Have you started watching Dexter yet?

Will you ever listen to the words in a Timbaland song?

How many more Team Domeski parties are there?

When should I visit again?

Do you have your own personal Lumbo yet?

How easy am I to level?

[N 82 50 24]

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Step by step, what do I need to do to buy www.RandALLin.com for my blog to be hosted?

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I just bought it for you. You owe me a few dollars. I'll host it for you.

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Is the new whip everything you hoped it could be?

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Yes, I love it. It looks great, is sickly fast and has tons of technology features.

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Have you started watching Dexter yet?

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Nope. My netflix have been sitting here for weeks. But I will eventually get working on Dexter.

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Will you ever listen to the words in a Timbaland song?

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I mean, probably not. I just like the beats.

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How many more Team Domeski parties are there?

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11. 10 more after tonight.

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When should I visit again?

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Whenever, I'm always around. Feel free to come whenever. But you should probably time it with a Team Domeski party.

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Do you have your own personal Lumbo yet?

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No, Lumbo is way too insubordinate. I'm not sure how sub deals with that. Plus he looks so much like Benyamine it would kinda freak me out. And I haven't found a good candidate.

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How easy am I to level?

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Not that easy, you're not gullible at all.

[zasterguava]

Ok. Lets get down to business... How rich are you?

[N 82 50 24]

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Ok. Lets get down to business... How rich are you?

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Seems like a bad idea for me to throw out numbers, right? I pay my taxes honestly (well, I think I do ... I have someone do them for me and he tells me how big a check to write), but I still don't think I should put it out there.

[ZJ123]

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13.253 million

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[N 82 50 24]

LOL. I can confirm my net worth to be under that number.