200 nl (pocket pair turned into bluff)

GUG01 · #1 10-07-2007, 09:35 PM

Villain is a regular 13.4/8.5/3.29 tag, 76% c/ bets over 1k sample

Thoughts on the line?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($216.20)
UTG+1 ($108)
MP1 ($175)
MP2 ($243.90)
MP3 ($125.60)
CO ($200.10)
Hero ($278.20)
SB ($105.30)
BB ($247.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG raises to $8, 5 folds, Hero calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG bets $14, Hero raises to $40, UTG calls $26.

Turn: ($99) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $72

BT2 · #2 10-07-2007, 11:10 PM

for this move to work, you must have a nitty image.

Renton · #3 10-08-2007, 01:07 AM

spew

if villain reads hands then you are screwed

GUG01 · #4 10-08-2007, 01:35 AM

I'm rep exactly AJ KJs QJs JTs J9s or 99/33

Can he call with AA/KK/QQ?

Split Suit · #5 10-08-2007, 01:45 AM

if ur image isnt snug, i dont see u gettin away with this. i think u are representing that range if ur tight, but if ur looser, ur burning up money.

also, i think u can lowwer ur turn bet. it accomplishes the same thing from 62-90.

(i lay out on flop and pick a different spot. but thats just me)

2nd thought:

i think Renton is right here. i didnt see raiser was UTG originally. if he knows u at all, he knows ur not raising anything but 99/33/J9/bluffball here on the flop. yea...dont think this is working

CalledDownLight · #6 10-08-2007, 02:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
spew

if villain reads hands then you are screwed

[/ QUOTE ]

agree

HughJass · #7 10-08-2007, 03:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
for this move to work, you must have a nitty image.

[/ QUOTE ]
I think that sums it up pretty well. Isn't JJ in our range here too? If UTG's range is AA-TT and AK, shouldn't we be calling with JJ preflop rather than 3betting?

I think this bluff is reasonable if the UTG player is capable of folding an overpair. He plays a 13/8 style, raised in EP and may be check/folding an overpair to a big turn bet. If you're not known for bluffing he's gotta be thinking he's up against a set.

The above posters who criticize this bluff probably play a 16/12 style and never fold overpairs because people playback/call them down much lighter When a 13/8 raises in EP and gets raised on the flop he's up against a set much more often.

HughJass · #8 10-08-2007, 03:18 AM

[ QUOTE ]
spew

if villain reads hands then you are screwed

[/ QUOTE ]
Since the villain plays 13/8, shouldn't he put OP on a set?

CalledDownLight · #9 10-08-2007, 03:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
spew

if villain reads hands then you are screwed

[/ QUOTE ]
Since the villain plays 13/8, shouldn't he put OP on a set?

[/ QUOTE ]

are you autoraising a set on this flop? Its a lot more standard for a set to just call on this flop. Raising is pretty much repping what OP has 60% of the time and a set 40% of the time. Your going to see a ton of midpairs if you look this up imo. However, many retarded opponents will put OP on a jack and fold so it depends on how bad he is.

Mr_Donktastic · #10 10-08-2007, 03:37 AM

I don't f around with 13/8's UTG raises.

ESPECIALLY IF THEY CALL A FLOP RAISE.

You can't rep a J either unless you are bad.