Trying to move from LHE to NL - winning small pots and losing big ones

[pingu]

Having been a moderate (ok, mediocre) winning low-limit player for some time, I want to try NL. However, so far I've found that I'm winning small pots while losing large ones. I'm trying to be aggressive, but maybe I'm picking the wrong spots/opponents. Advice appreciated.

Here is a HH - apologies that they're manual, I couldn't find a converter for Boss Media.

READS: Been at this table about 1 hour (~50 hands). Villain's vitals are 39/7/0.5 but only with 50 hands imported.

$0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 11:56:34 - 2007/10/19
MP1 ($58.40)
<font color="green">MP2/Hero ($47.25) </font>
CO ($61.10)
BTN ($66.25)
SB ($45.25)
BB ($50.75)
UTG ($46.50)
<font color="red">UTG+1/Villain ($50.70)</font>
UTG+2 ($58.40)

Pre-flop: Hero is MP2 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="red"> Villain </font> calls $0.50, 2 folds, <font color="green"> Hero raises $3.50 </font>, 3 folds, <font color="red"> Villain calls $3.50 </font>

*** FLOP *** [7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]]
Villain checks, Hero bets $5.00, Villain calls $5.00

*** TURN *** [5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]
Villain checks, Hero bets $10.00, Villain calls $10.00

<font color="blue"> I'm thinking I'm good here, likely up against a J or maybe 88-TT or even a flush draw </font>

*** RIVER *** [K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
Villain checks, Hero bets $5.00, Villain goes all-in with $32.20, Hero goes all-in with $28.75

<font color="blue"> This was a poor 'milk' bet and then, after the big re-raise, I convinced myself I'd induced an all-in river bluff with the weak bet, so I called. </font>

So am I not respecting my opps enough? Should I keep popping the flop but slow waaaay down if called?

[wallenborn]

[ QUOTE ]
Having been a moderate (ok, mediocre) winning low-limit player for some time, I want to try NL. However, so far I've found that I'm winning small pots while losing large ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great, you're halfway there. Stop losing large pots, and you're good.

[ QUOTE ]
Villain's vitals are 39/7/0.5 but only with 50 hands imported.

[/ QUOTE ]

So villain calls preflop with a lot of hands, probably with too many baby aces and too many suited cards, probably too often out-of position. Postflop his calling range is pretty wide, so you are going to get paid off in AK&gt;Ax situations quite often. However, he rarely raises postflop, so if he does raise, he probably has TPTK beat. You want to value bet this guy with top pair in position. You don't want to call his raises.
[ QUOTE ]

*** RIVER *** [K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
Villain checks, Hero bets $5.00, Villain goes all-in with $32.20, Hero goes all-in with $28.75

<font color="blue"> This was a poor 'milk' bet and then, after the big re-raise, I convinced myself I'd induced an all-in river bluff with the weak bet, so I called. </font>

[/ QUOTE ]

With his stats i don't believe he bluffraises the river much. He has something he believes in. The question is: how much of his range is 7x, how much is KJ (which you beat) and how much is QQ/TT? I would have checked behind on the river. Alternatively, check behind on the turn, call a reasonable bet on the river. But fold to a shove from this guy.


[ QUOTE ]
So am I not respecting my opps enough? Should I keep popping the flop but slow waaaay down if called?

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't totally slow down against a calling station. He is perfectly capable of calling 3 streets with A2 on a AJ4 flop, and you don't want to give up that value. But you have to look at the board texture. On this flop, the only hand you're reasonably ahead of is a flush draw. All other hands he could have are either way ahead or way behind. When the flush draw misses on the river, he won't call you with a worse hand, so you shouldn't bet.

[pingu]

[ QUOTE ]

Great, you're halfway there. Stop losing large pots, and you're good.

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]

So villain calls preflop with a lot of hands, probably with too many baby aces and too many suited cards, probably too often out-of position . Postflop his calling range is pretty wide, so you are going to get paid off in AK&gt;Ax situations quite often. However, he rarely raises postflop, so if he does raise, he probably has TPTK beat. You want to value bet this guy with top pair in position. You don't want to call his raises.


[/ QUOTE ]
Spot on, Villain had 76 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] UTG+2

[ QUOTE ]

With his stats i don't believe he bluffraises the river much. He has something he believes in. The question is: how much of his range is 7x, how much is KJ (which you beat) and how much is QQ/TT? I would have checked behind on the river. Alternatively, check behind on the turn, call a reasonable bet on the river. But fold to a shove from this guy.


[/ QUOTE ]
I was all ready to check behind and then my brain back-fired and I sprouted donkey ears! All those ears could hear was "value bet calling stations!".
Should at least have managed to fold to the AI though [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

[ QUOTE ]

Don't totally slow down against a calling station. He is perfectly capable of calling 3 streets with A2 on a AJ4 flop, and you don't want to give up that value. But you have to look at the board texture. On this flop, the only hand you're reasonably ahead of is a flush draw. All other hands he could have are either way ahead or way behind. When the flush draw misses on the river, he won't call you with a worse hand, so you shouldn't bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Great stuff thx - this style of thoughtful reply is what make these forums.

[swainy]

it looks good, apart from the river, i would also have just checked behind. "milk" bets open u up to the possiblity of being bluffed and the only hand u beat is KJ...

Also, the bet sizing... PF $2.50 would have been enough with only 1 limper. the pot is $17 on turn, so i would have bet 12-17 bucks to charge the FD/commit a J. If he raises u there u can just fold, and if he calls u can just check behind and hopefully he will show a J, not a 7. unlucky, u played it fine before the river.

[RiverMustelid]

Against this villain you won't get bluffed. He can easily have a 7 as a 39/x player. Moreover, you have represented a hand the whole way along. with his aggression level he won't be reraising less than trips.

Don't start checking this river. There is still value with a bet of c$10, but a fold to any push. A lot of hands with jacks and kings in are calling. I think you faked yourself out by betting small on the river and then thinking you were being bluffed.

[Johnes Benjamin]

If you are going to have to call a raise if you make a certain bet, don't make the bet. betting the river instead of checking is -EV if it convinces you he could bluff raise enough to always call.


Also, people make moves, but most people are pussies.
NL frees you us a lot, but at lower levels don't overthink your opponents too much, that was a big leak of mine.
Everyone has doubt, so don't assume average villain at NL50 is capable of bluff raising big on river b/c of your bet.
It is much harder for villains to make loose plays when the bets grow so much faster than in limit

[wallenborn]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you faked yourself out by betting small on the river and then thinking you were being bluffed.

[/ QUOTE ]

Spot on, and this is very important: If you think you'll fold to a push, make sure his push is meaningful. If you bet this small, you represent weakness, and you risk trapping yourself.

The problem i have with a river bet here is: there is almost $40 in the pot. He has $30 behind. If you bet $10, and he shoves, you'd get pot odds of around 4:1, that's a tough fold.

Let's do some hand-waving: assume you are ahead 60% of the time. There's $40 in the pot, your equity is 0.6*$40 = $24. If you check behind, on average, you'd win $24.

If you bet $10, three things can happen:

1. He folds a missed flush draw. Let's say he does 30% of the time. Your equity: 0.3*$40=$12.
2. He calls with AK. Let's say he does that 30% of the time. Your equity: 0.3*$50=$15, since he put in $10 more.
3. He shoves, you fold. That would happen 40% of the time. Your equity here: -0.4*$10=-$4, since you put in additional $10, which you could have saved.

Total equity: 0.3*$40 + 0.3*$50 - 0.4*$10 = $23

Of course i totally made these numbers up, and you can feel free to insert your own, but my point is: this value bet is super thin at best, plus it puts you to a tough decision, and not him.

[toymach776]

In LHE, it is often profitable to call bets liberally on the river because of the pot odds that you will be getting. They will be so high sometimes that calling is correct, even when you are fairly sure that you are beat. NL is a different story. You are going to have to make tougher laydowns with premium hands like AA on the turn and river sometimes. In the hand that you described, there is a good chance that you are beat based on villains stats. He is rarely, ir ever, moving all in on the river without a hand that you have beat.
The biggest difference between LHE and NLHE is the turn and river when the betting gets larger much more quickly. In the above hand, I think that it is LHE strat. that caused you to make this call.
Try reading Sklansky and Millers NLHTAP. There is some good discussion about the differences between LHE and NLHE. THis book was the first one I read when making the transition from LHE to NLHE myself and its helped a lot.

[King Spew]

Good post toy.

OP, I lost $$ as I was learning NL. ALMOST ALL WAS BECAUSE I CALLED BIG BETS LIKE THIS. When I read "winning small, losing big" I lived the problem you are having.

Size your bets properly. As stated earlier, you said and it was contradicted, you felt like he was likely bluffing with his river push. Learn to NOT get into thinking like this. Size you bets to avoid this.

Here's the deal. You still lose money by making a ½ PSB on the river, then folding to the push. (TOUGH!!! fold, but a valid one.) Half sized pots get called or folded a majority of the time. What are your goals for a river bet? You want hands you beat to call.

Pushes over the top are rare. Think of a percentage that THIS opp would push bluff..... low agg factor and all.

BUT, you lose LESS money over the long haul.

[SMACK BOOTY]

[ QUOTE ]
but my point is: this value bet is super thin at best, plus it puts you to a tough decision, and not him.

[/ QUOTE ]


OP: Hypothetical math aside, IMO this is a standard check on the river, and as you gain more experience at NL, you will start to learn (the hard way) by the turn that you were beat. I was you 18 months ago, and the biggest piece of advice I can give you is this: 1 pair, even aces, is still only 1 pair, and in NL, you want to play big pots with big hands.