QQ Facing 3 shoves. Can this be a fold?

[Hoop Addict]

Don’t have HH here, but this is a fairly accurate recollection of the situation I think.

22 left in the $50 1r 1a. 18 spots pay.

We’re 8 handed. I’m in the CO and the blinds are 400/800/ante (75?).

People involved in the hand:
Me ~13K
Button ~5K (been v-tight & blinding down)
SB ~19K (BodogAri… has only joined the table about 2 orbits ago and hasn’t been very active but AFAIK is a pretty aggressive player)
BB ~17K (nothing stuck out in my mind about this bloke).

I’m dealt QQ & it’s folded to me. I make my standard raise to 2K. Button shoves, Ari shoves, BB shoves. Action back to me.

Is there any chance I’m folding this? ATM the largest stack in the tourney is about 30K. Winning this hand would give me over 40K. Folding leaves me 11K & probably about 16th of however many remain after the carnage of this hand.

My thoughts are that Ari doesn’t necessarily have a big hand here – he’s a bit of a push-monkey and has seen me steal the blinds about 3 times in the 2 orbits he’s been here. I don’t think he has to be strong in this position. BB on the other hand, I hadn’t seen get too far out of line, so his shove set off alarm bells.

Is this a ridiculously easy call given the price I’m getting? Anyone care to guess what the others were actually holding?

[swede554]

If Button is very tight he's range is probably something like 99+, AJs+, AQo+.

Ari probably doesn't know button is very tight because he's only been at the table to orbits to his re-shoving range should be alil wider then normal here because he knows your capable of raising light in postion and he's probably assuming button is shoving somewhat wide here as well. SO I'd say his range is 99+, AQs+, AQo+.

BB should really only be calling here with QQ+, AKs, AKo.

So given those ranges you have about 28% equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

113,272,806,416 games 242.188 secs 467,706,106 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.677% 26.51% 01.17% 30025438869 1325598883.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 19.184% 17.19% 02.00% 19466381592 2263569853.83 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 19.542% 17.35% 02.19% 19651727271 2484551914.83 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 33.596% 29.93% 03.66% 33906894399 4148643633.33 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


I didn't do the math but if you're getting the right price you should probbaly call this, but if it's close which I'm guessing it is, then bubble considerations come into play which probably will turn this into a fold. Imo this is a fold.

[bknollenberg]

[ QUOTE ]
If Button is very tight he's range is probably something like 99+, AJs+, AQo+.

Ari probably doesn't know button is very tight because he's only been at the table to orbits to his re-shoving range should be alil wider then normal here because he knows your capable of raising light in postion and he's probably assuming button is shoving somewhat wide here as well. SO I'd say his range is 99+, AQs+, AQo+.

BB should really only be calling here with QQ+, AKs, AKo.

So given those ranges you have about 28% equity.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

113,272,806,416 games 242.188 secs 467,706,106 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.677% 26.51% 01.17% 30025438869 1325598883.00 { QQ }
Hand 1: 19.184% 17.19% 02.00% 19466381592 2263569853.83 { 99+, AJs+, AQo+ }
Hand 2: 19.542% 17.35% 02.19% 19651727271 2484551914.83 { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 3: 33.596% 29.93% 03.66% 33906894399 4148643633.33 { QQ+, AKs, AKo }


I didn't do the math but if you're getting the right price you should probbaly call this, but if it's close which I'm guessing it is, then bubble considerations come into play which probably will turn this into a fold. Imo this is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
i agree. i've found may times that when i'm in a situation like this one, i'm up against two AK's and some other garb. however, you've sort of described the issue in your post; if you're most concerned with breaking the bubble, then you're looking at a hand where two potentially can go out and you're, what, 2? away from the money. however, if cashing in last place doesn't make you happier than not cashing, push them chippies in there.

[Stumpy]

Ari can shove a decent range here, because he's almost always going to get heads up against the button with a big (2:1) overlay.

I think his range could be wider than Swede has, but the BB range is really the key.

You're 34% in the side pot using Swede's numbers, and 33.3% is break-even, so basically you're even there.
The main pot is 20,600, you're putting in 3k more. So you're +2768 there using Swede's ranges.

I don't know what the payouts are for this tournament, but you're 4 from the money and probably 1.5 on average are going out here if you fold. So I think the $ of the bubble, plus the fact that the bubble should be tightening at least BB and button's ranges, makes this a fold.

If you can add JJ to BB's range, it's an easy call.

[Hoop Addict]

Agreed re Ari's ranging being wider. I think he's even putting $$ in wih hands like QJs & KQs figuring he would be getting a great price if he was able to isolate the shortie.

The bubble isn't a huge concern for me, I think 18th paid something like $150, and being Stars, it doesn't jump again until you make the FT.

I thought, and used a touch of my timebank for it, then called.

The other hands:

Button: JJ
Ari: AA
BB: KK

Board was 99xxQ & gave me a massive stack. Still not sure how I feel about it. Obviously got hugely lucky to hit, but it's still a call I probably make unless the SB/BB have shown they're pretty tight.

Thanks for the feedback.

[MauriceSch]

nice setup. lol.

[s33w33d]

I'd fold because I'm a nit, but AA vs. KK vs. QQ vs. JJ is pukey.