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#1
08-12-2006, 03:09 AM
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this is where hand reading pays off
Limit: $5/$10
6 players Converter Pre-flop: (6 players) econ_tim is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#cc0000">econ_tim raises</font>, 2 folds, BB calls, UTG calls. Flop: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6.5SB, 3 players) BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">econ_tim raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls. Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6.25BB, 3 players) BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">econ_tim bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">econ_tim 3-bets</font>, BB folds, UTG calls. River: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (13.25BB, 2 players) UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">econ_tim bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, econ_tim . . . now i should think back through the action and think about what i know about the player. would he limp with A9? 97? JT? how does he play strong hands on the flop? what are his minimum capping requirments on the turn? what does a river c/r mean? unfortunately i don't usually think through all this and instead base my decision on a small fraction of the information available. 
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#2
08-12-2006, 03:13 AM
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Re: this is where hand reading pays off
If your opponent plays logically and he knows you play logically, then the river is a crying call.
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#3
08-12-2006, 03:22 AM
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Re: this is where hand reading pays off
As I'm sure you already know, hand reading is a whole lot harder without any other general reads on the player. What can we narrow him down to? T9-A9 (any 9 really), T6, JT, 77, 99, and thats about all I can think of. I think the chances of him having a straight or a full house are about equal, and quads is of course quite unlikely. However, without reads, we have nowhere to begin narrowing this range down. Sooo, just call it and (A) be happy you just took down a 15bb pot + take a note of whatever he overplayed or (B) be happy you didn't raise and take note of how he played it.
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#4
08-12-2006, 03:25 AM
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Re: this is where hand reading pays off
[ QUOTE ]
If your opponent plays logically and he knows you play logically, then the river is a crying call. [/ QUOTE ]
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#6
08-12-2006, 05:57 AM
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Re: this is where hand reading pays off
1) i know i'm not folding regardless of my read. the decision is between raising and calling. for instance, if i could rule out A9 because villain would always raise that preflop, then i should 3-bet.
2) i had specific reads on the villain, but this post isn't about this one situation. it's about how the extra information can turn a close decision into an easy situation.
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#8
08-12-2006, 12:44 PM
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Re: this is where hand reading pays off
[ QUOTE ]
1) i know i'm not folding regardless of my read. the decision is between raising and calling. for instance, if i could rule out A9 because villain would always raise that preflop, then i should 3-bet. [/ QUOTE ] Players prone to open-limping tend not to value their preflop holdings as systematically as you're inferring here. I imagine an SSHE reader who hasn't adjusted to short play and still reserves a certain class of hands (e.g., small pairs, middle connectors) for early position limping might fall into this narrow niche you've carved, but even then I glance at the postflop action which screams boat over boat and my read gets a lot foggier. Even if you can summarily exclude A9, 3-betting remains very marginal given the risk/reward of exposing yourself to a cap. My gut tells me the limping range that made nines full needs to be weighted to match or exceed those that made straights given villain's peculiar flop, turn and river actions, hence dragging the EV of said 3-bet below zero. Of course included in this guesswork is the assumption that villain has typical board-reading skills for 5/10, knows what your turn repop means, and is not on shrieking gibbon monkey tilt. All that said, I'm very anxious to hear the details of your read and what you decided.
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#9
08-12-2006, 02:04 PM
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Re: this is where hand reading pays off
he can even have a hand like 97 here, and be tricky and wait for the river to raise.
Anyhow, when you take the line you did on the turn, he knows you have at least a 9, so when he raises the river, he can beat a 9+. So I'd just call the raise, cause really, you don't want 4 bets going in on this river.
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