Understanding Variance vs Questioning your ability..(hands/graph/long)

meccaNES · #1 09-13-2007, 12:57 AM

This is something have had a very hard time with. As my winrate drops from running/playing bad i begin to question if what i'm doing is the correct play or if it's just variance.

Here's some examples of variance from today's play.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($46)
MP ($46.40)
Button ($26.30)
Hero ($49.50)
BB ($57.05)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Button calls $0.50, Hero completes, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets $1, BB folds, Button calls $1.

Turn: ($3.50) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $2.5, Button calls $2.50.

River: ($8.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $4.5, Button raises to $9, Hero calls $4.50.

Final Pot: $26.50

Results in white below: 
Hero has Ts Qh (two pair, queens and jacks).
Button has 9h Js (three of a kind, jacks).
Outcome: Button wins $26.50. 

I felt i was ahead there...and simply value betting a calling station.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($45.90)
UTG ($199.45)
MP ($28)
Hero ($93.90)
Button ($64.75)
SB ($15.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($4.50) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $13.7 (All-In), Hero calls $13.70.

Turn: ($0) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($0) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $31.90

Results in white below: 
SB has Kd Tc (one pair, kings).
Hero has Ad 5d (high card, ace).
Outcome: SB wins $31.90. 

This guy was just an INSANE shorty i knew he's make this move with literally any two high cards any pair any draw. Just about any hand and figured i was a pretty decent favorite or at least even money on this flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($50)
UTG ($30.95)
MP ($50.40)
CO ($78.15)
Button ($28.30)
SB ($20.40)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, MP calls $0.50, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($2) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, MP checks.

Turn: ($2) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5, UTG folds, MP calls $1.50, SB folds.

River: ($5) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3.5, MP raises to $11.5, Hero calls $8.

Final Pot: $28

Results in white below: 
Hero has 3d 7c (two pair, sevens and threes).
MP has Jd Ts (straight, ace high).
Outcome: MP wins $28. 

I'm not sure what the hell this hand is, feel free to comment on it.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($30.50)
Button ($37.30)
SB ($49.50)
Hero ($54.75)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.50, Button calls $0.50, SB raises to $2, Hero raises to $7, UTG calls $6.50, Button calls $6.50, SB raises to $49.5, Hero raises to $54.75, UTG calls $23.50 (All-In), Button calls $30.30 (All-In).

Flop: ($142.40) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: ($142.40) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($142.40) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $172.05

Results in white below: 
UTG has 9d As (two pair, aces and nines).
Button has Ks Jh (one pair, twos).
SB has Ah Kh (two pair, aces and twos).
Hero has Qc Qs (two pair, queens and twos).
Outcome: UTG wins $122. SB wins $50.05. 

The SB was semi lagish but an ok player. Very much capable of 4betting w/ AKs with a lot of dead money ina 3bet pot. I felt the other two overcallers were holding some of his outs and thus greatly increasing my odds of holding up on the flop. Easy call.

Ok, so that's variance. I get that i made decent/ok plays and got drawn out on or lost flips.

Note that i'm not bitching, this is simply how the game goes. If this couldn't happen then no one would make any money.

What i want to focus on is where can you draw the line between variance and bad play?

"Oh i got it in ahead and they sucked out on me"

Is that the soul of variance? Just getting it in ahead and hoping to hold up?

What about when we assess a range for out opponents and it turns out we were huge dogs? Was the play there poor or was it just variance? I guess a lot of this would just be situational.

Here's some hands i think played very poorly. Comments on these would be greatly appreciated.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($50)
MP ($33.10)
Button ($51.10)
SB ($85.15)
Hero ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP calls $0.50, 1 fold, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($1.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.5, MP calls $1.50, SB folds.

Turn: ($4.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

River: ($4.50) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $5, Hero calls $5.

Final Pot: $14.50

Results in white below: 
Hero has Kh Tc (one pair, tens).
MP has 8h Qs (straight, queen high).
Outcome: MP wins $14.50. 

I think we see a busted draw or a weak 9 or even air here enough especially vs this guy as i'd seen him bluff the river before.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($75)
UTG ($28)
MP ($48)
CO ($44.85)
Hero ($54.75)
SB ($35.30)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises to $1.5, 1 fold, Hero calls $1.50, 2 folds.

Flop: ($3.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($3.75) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets $2, Hero raises to $6.5, MP calls $4.50.

River: ($16.75) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $16.75

Results in white below: 
MP has Ac Qs (two pair, queens and nines).
Hero has Tc Th (two pair, tens and nines).
Outcome: MP wins $16.75. 

This guy was 11/4/.9 and very weak tight.
I really didn't figure him for TPTK as he checked the flop and i thought the turn raise would take it down but, i knew i was in trouble after he called.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($74.55)
Hero ($64.95)
Button ($63.90)
SB ($34.50)
BB ($31.05)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, SB calls $1.75, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($6) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $2.5, Hero raises to $8.5, SB folds, BB raises to $29.05, Hero calls $20.55.

Turn: ($64.10) J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)

River: ($64.10) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

Final Pot: $64.10

Results in white below: 
BB has 8h Td (two pair, tens and eights).
Hero has Ks Kh (one pair, kings).
Outcome: BB wins $64.10. 

This guy is 45/10/1 over ~100 hands. I think this may just be a classic case of overplaying big pairs. That's a REALLY wet board and after my flop raise i should just fold it in most cases.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

UTG ($49.75)
MP ($69.60)
CO ($30.25)
Hero ($54)
SB ($57.80)
BB ($6.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises to $2, Hero calls $2, SB calls $1.75, 1 fold.

Flop: ($6.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $4.5, SB calls $4.50, CO folds.

Turn: ($15.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $9, Hero calls $9.

River: ($33.50) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero calls $24.

Final Pot: $81.50

Results in white below: 
SB has Qd Qc (three of a kind, queens).
Hero has Ah Ks (one pair, aces).
Outcome: SB wins $81.50. 

I was really lost in this hand. As i put the SB on something like AJ or AT. Maybe AQ which is why i froze up. I think in these types of situations i become weak tight. I didn't 3bet PF since the initial raiser was 11/4/infinity. I don't see a lot of purpose in 3betting super nits. Especially not when i have position on them. I'm probably wrong though.

I included the results in most of these as it'd be too much trouble and it wouldn't get my point across on varaince if there weren't any.

I understand that both are parts of our games. But at times i think the line between variance and poor play can be blurred. Especially for me.

So, you guys, please fill me on on which hands are which. Variance or poor play.

Also, is this a common problem? I think i see it a bit where people start doubting themselves. I don't want to be a victim of that as well.

oh yeah here's this thing. I still don't know how to read these things. So, if some of you guys can give me a quick lesson on it i'd greatly appreciate it.

fjbourne · #2 09-13-2007, 01:00 AM

All in Graph? That's the best way to tell if you're actually running bad. The Sklansky bucks graphs really don't tell you anything.

tautomer · #3 09-13-2007, 01:25 AM

Call river raises or pot bets with marginal hands less often unless the villain is a habitual river bluffer. That should fix things up a bit. Plus it's only 1000 hands, I think that's only like 90 minutes of play if you're 7 tabling. This is just a standard blah session really. They do happen from time to time.

Obviously getting all in preflop with QQ against the whole table is a very high variance play but not necessarily a bad one given the action in your case. The SB is the only one that has you beat most times. You pretty much just need to dodge overcards to the river. Definitely a gamble with multiple opponents.

Ikaika · #4 09-13-2007, 01:29 AM

Post more hands together so that its impossible to respond coherently to any of them.

meccaNES · #5 09-13-2007, 01:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Post more hands together so that its impossible to respond coherently to any of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand this...?

Kasane · #6 09-13-2007, 02:07 AM

Why post hands that you know you made the right call and lost? And the spite calls are just spew, but you know this as well...

Post in the new micro brew bbv thread. This is perfect there...

C4LL4W4Y · #7 09-13-2007, 02:12 AM

hmmm, looks like you're confusing variance with overplaying hands. let me give my comments.

1: i probably wouldn't lead the turn, but if you have good reason to believe he'll call down with marginal made hands/draws then this is fine. however, once that jack rivers i'd seriously consider shutting down, or at the very least not leading, as jack/x is within that marginal hands/draws range that he is often on.

2: bad call, you're getting 18.2-13.7 which is not enough for your draw.

3: marginal spot, you can go either way with a fold/call to the river raise depending on your perception of villain.

4: i'd probably 3bet to like 8/9, and if you say villain is playing semi lag-ish then its probably a call, but it's marginal.

5: what the hell is that flop lead?

6: raising the turn (TT hand) turns your hand into a bluff, and usually only receives further action from hands that are beating you. just call and try to get some value on the river.

7: w/t guys are the only types of people i fold this to, and i still have a hard time. i can't fault you for felting this, but against guys that don't give a lot of action, you're often beat in this spot.

8: the ak hand, eh i can't really find a fold until the river. the turn is fine, though i usually raise against guys that love random aces.

C4LL4W4Y · #8 09-13-2007, 02:13 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Why post hands that you know you made the right call and lost? And the spite calls are just spew, but you know this as well...

[/ QUOTE ]

even though op was often up against hands he was beating, doesn't mean that he beat those ranges..

Kasane · #9 09-13-2007, 02:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Why post hands that you know you made the right call and lost? And the spite calls are just spew, but you know this as well...

[/ QUOTE ]

even though op was often up against hands he was beating, doesn't mean that he beat those ranges..

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a good point, but his hero calls at least seemed based on solid reads...

johnnybeef · #10 09-13-2007, 02:51 AM

hand 1: Calling the river raise is pretty bad, I mean, you really aren't beating too much. I will usually check the river and enable him to bluff all his missed draws.

hand 2: Just fold please. You are getting horrendous odds. This ain't the movies, in real life, hero's die.

hand 3: Not horrible, and I tend to make the call when playing bad, but there is definitely a fold there if you look hard enough.

hand 4: One of my friends who plays high stakes says that the cutoff point for getting all in pre without a read in a 6 max game is QQ. I think that this probably applys much more at the more aggressive higher stakes games, but at unl, I am finding that playing QQ for stacks is neutral ev at best, although you did have a fair amount of dead money so I don't hate the call.

hand 5: This is actually ok I think assuming he's not totally passive. You let him bluff a missed spade draw and value bet a smallish pair/9.

hand 6: Unless villain is mixing up his play, he played it horribly, and you played it reasonably. Although, I prefer to 3bet pre. Also, if I am flat calling, I am betting the flop here 100%. Your turn play isn't the greatest as you are only getting called by hands that beat you.

hand 7: Call flop, raise a bricked turn.

hand 8: Again, I prefer 3 betting preflop here, and I prolly shove turn. That is usually a blocker bet at these stakes.

Like a lot of unlers, you have difficulty finding folds. Remember, when people raise in nlhe, they are usually strong. Good players get bluffed A LOT. When I am playing my best, I rarely am calling unless it is as a bluff catcher, or I am very strong.