the proof is in the pudding

[cato-tonia]

[ QUOTE ]
i just ate some pudding

that being said i'll lay 3:2 as well for $5k if you want more action.

[/ QUOTE ]

there aren't 100 bettable football games left this year.

however, for next year, i will happily book your bets if:

1) you offer me my expected rate of return, compounded over the betting period--i earn 300% per season. we are looking at 3 to 1, not 3 to 2.

2) the choice of games is in my control.

3) the security of my capital is not in doubt. your uncle frank is not a secure venue.

4) i have recorded win rates as high as 70% and as low as 57%: we must settle on a minimum acceptable rate. everybody experiences variance, i refuse to lose money on a variant year.

5) we must arrange a means to keep my selections secret till after post time; this means, the selections are not published AND they are not available to those betting against me. this would require a third party of impeccable credentials, or a repositor who receives the selection within some fraction of time immediately prior or after the game starts. i will NOT accept any arrangement that permits others from using my selections to defray the cost of their wager.

to put it bluntly, i'm gonna take your [censored] money; and i'm not going to accept a proposition that puts the other guy in a win/win situation. this is the bottom line: i will NOT put money at a risk/rate of return lower than my annual compounded rate. but, then, since no one can select a win rate as high as i have claimed, you are guaranteed of a successful wager, aren't you? there shouldn't be any issue with it, i wouldn't think. so, these are my terms.

-c

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
there aren't 100 bettable football games left this year.


[/ QUOTE ]

Don't you bet NCAA basketball or NBA? How about NCAA football? Between NFL, NCAAF, NCAAB and NBA, there should be plenty of opportunities to bet in the coming months.

[ QUOTE ]

however, for next year, i will happily book your bets if:

1) you offer me my expected rate of return, compounded over the betting period--i earn 300% per season. we are looking at 3 to 1, not 3 to 2.


[/ QUOTE ]

Yep, the proof is in the pudding all right. You were offered a massively EV bet (based on your 62% win rate), and you ran for the hills!

3 to 1? Why would I offer a 62% capper 3 to 1 that he can't win 60 out of his next 100??? What does your annual rate of return have to do with anything? You would still be betting on these picks, wouldn't you? You could announce your selections just before kick off/tip off for all I care.

[ QUOTE ]

2) the choice of games is in my control.


[/ QUOTE ]

Here's an idea of what I would expect.

1. the game is available on major books (we can settle on 3-4 major online sites)
2. it is possible to bet $500 or more on the /total/side/prop you are selecting
3. the juice is -105 or higher

[ QUOTE ]

3) the security of my capital is not in doubt. your uncle frank is not a secure venue.


[/ QUOTE ]

We can post the money up with a 2+2 mod.

[ QUOTE ]

4) i have recorded win rates as high as 70% and as low as 57%: we must settle on a minimum acceptable rate. everybody experiences variance, i refuse to lose money on a variant year.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is hilarious! You refuse to lose money on variance? How do you ever place a bet? Even a 62% capper loses the occasional wager.

I am offering you an opportunity to have massive EV on a $10K wager. I never said that winning or losing this wager would prove anything. Even a 50% capper has a shot of winning 60 out of his next 100 picks. The point is not to prove anything; it is to have the best of it.

[ QUOTE ]

to put it bluntly, i'm gonna take your [censored] money. i am going to whip your ass, and it is going to cost you.


[/ QUOTE ]

Oh come on TLT, it's clear to everyone that you are scared shitless. There is no way you are going to make a bet with anyone. The reasons are obvious:

1. you are probably a 51% capper at best
2. your bankroll is so small that we would laugh at any sum you were willing/able to wager

[ QUOTE ]

this is the bottom line: i will NOT put money at a risk/rate of return lower than my annual compounded rate.


[/ QUOTE ]

I am fine with this TLT. Let's just move it up to 300 picks and 180 wins, and I will be more than happy to lay you 3 to 1. This will also reduce the variance, which is what you said you wanted.

[ QUOTE ]

but, then, since no one can select a win rate as high as i have claimed, you are guaranteed of a successful wager, aren't you?


[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are quite correct. No one can win 62% of their wagers. This is easy money for me. That's why I am offering the bet.

Why are you so scared? If you can win 62% of your wagers, then this is easy money for you.

[ QUOTE ]

there shouldn't be any issue with it, i wouldn't think. so, these are my terms.
-c

[/ QUOTE ]

It should be obvious I am very willing to bet with you. On the other hand, you seem scared. Why? As you said, "the proof is in the pudding."

I will make you another offer. I will bet you that you can't win 145 out of 250 (a mere 58%) and will lay you 5 to 4. A 62% capper would have enough of an edge to bet almost his entire bankroll on such a proposition. How could you possibly turn down such an incredible offer? Can't you scrape together a few hundred bucks to bet against me TLT?

Edit to add: What I said about the -105 juice is obviously not what I meant. You can't bet on -400 moneylines, lol. Let's say -115 or better (i.e. -110, -105, +100, +105, etc.).

[NajdorfDefense]

he can't scrape together 2 wooden nickels and is trying to go tout, isn't it obvious?

[cato-tonia]

i MAKE 3 to 1 on my money. that's the bottom line, bud, either meet it, or shut up.

simply put 3 to 2 is good on one play: you offer me that on all plays? right, that's "massively" EV. your offer is inadequate. i have explained why.

the mod at 2 + 2 is inadequate.

by suitable, i was assuming 59.0 as a low.

and i will take your money.

-c.

and as for you, thremp, my suspicion is, you do not play professionally. that's a strong suspicion.

[trixtrix]

put me down @ -150 giving op a chance to win 6k more

[trixtrix]

[ QUOTE ]
put me down @ -150 giving op a chance to win 6k more

[/ QUOTE ]

actually i retract my offer, i didn't read p.o's offer correctly; for some reason i keep reading 62% throughout this thread and mistakenly read the prop to mean 62 wins out of 100 w.a picks.

i'm not interested in coin-flippers, if op is interested in taking +150 for his consistent 62% of above winners my offer still holds

[Performify]

From the FAQ:

# What is the highest sustainable win rate in point spread betting?
# Generally, somewhere in the 55%-60% range is considered the maximum that is sustainable. However, if you start approaching the higher end of that range, you are probably passing up some +EV wagers.



(emphasis added)



Not to say anything about sample size, yadda yadda.

No one says its "impossible" to pick 60%.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
No one says its "impossible" to pick 60%.... when you are faking your record

[/ QUOTE ]

[B00T]

can you transform into NT for a few weeks?

plz?

[Performify]

Heh.

If I turned in to NT, I'd probably be banning Thremp every two days...

-P