30/60 turn spot

[PokerBob]

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But by checking the turn we lose value vs. b) and d) and when he donks the river do we call with A high? The 3 bet is obviously horrible but I bet the turn all day long w the nut draw 2 overs and gs.

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we don't lose value if he wouldn't have called the turn bet.

[Nate.]

All--

I think that it's completely bonkers not to bet this turn. People call this flop with all sorts of stuff, including many no-pair hands, all of which you want to bet against on this turn. Even bad one-pair hands fold sometimes. And there's the obvious poker-101 reason that you only lose a fraction of a bet when you're called by a better hand. Even getting checkraised isn't terrible.

Quick visualization thing: you don't know any hands, and you see a defense situation where the big blind check-calls a 965 twotone flop and then check-folds an offsuit seven turn. Are you very surprised to see the fold? If not, we should definitely definitely bet the turn.

In short, it takes a heck of a read not to bet this turn. I agree that three-betting is pretty bad, but I can think of a few guys who manage to have checkraising ranges here that consist substantially of hands that fold to a third bet. (Seriously.)

Anyway, I belive that checking behind here under anything near standard conditions is a big mistake.

--Nate

[Nate.]

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I raise AcTc in HJ, HU w/ bb, flop 96c5c.

He c/c.

Turn is offsuit 7. (9657 board). He c/r.

I b/3bet. spew? plan for hand?

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why did you bet the turn?

3betting is amazingly bad.

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Let me explain.

When he calls the flop on this board, he either has (a) a pair (b) a club draw (c) a gutshot or (d) nothing. When the turn card comes, he still has all of these things except for (c). It is quite possible that he is bluffing with something dumb like QT on this turn, but if he is, you have the best hand and have him drawing near dead. Let him barrel away. The only thing that happens when you 3bet the turn is that he either folds a worse hand or caps it with a straight. This is basically what happens when you bet, too. Check and take the free card.

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PokerBob--

Pairs sometimes fold. Club draws always call. Many of his nothing hands are drawing substantially live against us.

In particular, if you disagree that pairs sometimes fold, you cannot dispute that he will have sometimes made very thin preflop/flop calls with nothing hands we don't dominate. If you don't disagree that pairs sometimes fold--and I've played with calling stations of every stripe and basically all of them fold some pairs here--then a bet is mandatory.

--Nate

[Nate.]

All--

OK, so since so many people here seemed to feel so strongly about checking, and I think it's terrible, I just asked a very good player and even better poker theorist about this hand.

[ QUOTE ]
bulldogs1729 (11:28:51 PM): hey, happy thanksgiving. quick poker question if you have a minute/ are around.
Very Good Player and Even Better Poker Theorist (11:33:02 PM): yeah what up
bulldogs1729 (11:33:10 PM): limit hold'em
bulldogs1729 (11:33:14 PM): you open the cutoff with Ac Tc
bulldogs1729 (11:33:16 PM): BB calls
bulldogs1729 (11:33:20 PM): flop 9h 6c 5c
bulldogs1729 (11:33:22 PM): BB ch-call
bulldogs1729 (11:33:25 PM): turn 7d
bulldogs1729 (11:33:27 PM): BB checks, you?
VGPaEBPT (11:34:10 PM): bet
VGPaEBPT (11:34:15 PM): wait
VGPaEBPT (11:34:20 PM): is this a trick question?

[/ QUOTE ]

--Nate

[PokerBob]

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Quick visualization thing: you don't know any hands, and you see a defense situation where the big blind check-calls a 965 twotone flop and then check-folds an offsuit seven turn. Are you very surprised to see the fold?

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I find it hard to believe that anything that can check/call this flop will now fold the turn when that card comes. Are we really supposed to have an 8 here?

[Nate.]

PokerBob--

Anyone who won't fold any pair here will have all sorts of no-pair hands here. Why does he need to put us on an 8 to fold 33 or K5 or 62s, anyway? After all, he's either a terrible hand-range analyst, or he knows that it's terrible to have a narrow betting range in Hero's spot.

--Nate

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
PokerBob--

Anyone who won't fold any pair here will have all sorts of no-pair hands here. Why does he need to put us on an 8 to fold 33 or K5 or 62s, anyway? After all, he's either a terrible hand-range analyst, or he knows that it's terrible to have a narrow betting range in Hero's spot.

--Nate

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in my experience, guys who flop pairs don't fold them, especially on paintless boards. the point is, much more often than not, when he calls the flop and then that card comes, he's got something that beats us and he ain't folding it to a turn bet. in this super tiny pot in a situation where we (a) are likely beat (b) have a boatload of outs and (c) have to call a turn c/r, i think betting sucks.

[Nate.]

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[ QUOTE ]
PokerBob--

Anyone who won't fold any pair here will have all sorts of no-pair hands here. Why does he need to put us on an 8 to fold 33 or K5 or 62s, anyway? After all, he's either a terrible hand-range analyst, or he knows that it's terrible to have a narrow betting range in Hero's spot.

--Nate

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in my experience, guys who flop pairs don't fold them.

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PokerBob--

(A) I think that statement is nowhere near true.

(B) As I've said a few times, he doesn't need to fold a pair for the bet to be correct.

--Nate

EDIT: Looks like you edited the post. You seem not to be paying attention. Not only do almost all opponents fold some pairs here, what you wrote is not a sufficient condition for a bet to be incorrect even if you were right. If you think through what this* would imply about his flop and preflop calling ranges, you end up with a pretty incoherent picture of how Villain plays poker.

*this here referring to a situation where an opponent wouldn't fold a pair and yet wouldn't have many unpaired hands in the first place

EDIT 2: Gah, PokerBob edited the post I'm responded to again. That's twice just for this post, after several more posts had occurred in the thread. Trust me, gentle reader. Anyway, I've repeated my position enough now. What PB is saying just doesn't outweigh the obvious benefits of betting.

[PokerBob]

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PokerBob--

Anyone who won't fold any pair here will have all sorts of no-pair hands here. Why does he need to put us on an 8 to fold 33 or K5 or 62s, anyway? After all, he's either a terrible hand-range analyst, or he knows that it's terrible to have a narrow betting range in Hero's spot.

--Nate

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in my experience, guys who flop pairs don't fold them.

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PokerBob--

(A) I think that statement is nowhere near true.

(B) As I've said a few times, he doesn't need to fold a pair for the bet to be correct.

--Nate

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ok.

[Nate.]

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PokerBob--

Anyone who won't fold any pair here will have all sorts of no-pair hands here. Why does he need to put us on an 8 to fold 33 or K5 or 62s, anyway? After all, he's either a terrible hand-range analyst, or he knows that it's terrible to have a narrow betting range in Hero's spot.

--Nate

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in my experience, guys who flop pairs don't fold them.

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PokerBob--

(A) I think that statement is nowhere near true.

(B) As I've said a few times, he doesn't need to fold a pair for the bet to be correct.

--Nate

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ok.

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PokerBob--

Also, let me say again that an excellent player literally thought that any suggestion of checking in this spot had to be a joke.

--Nate