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  #31  
Old 11-23-2007, 09:01 PM
darko3131 darko3131 is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Thanks for the tips, I'm still undecided. Those odds at bet365 look really nice stereoman, but I'm really limited to bodog. I can't deposit into a sportsbook so I can only play if I get free money or in bodog's case playing poker freerolls. With that being the case I'm always playing with house money which is good, but I also built my bankroll literally $1 at a time, and if I ever lost it all its basically game over with my sportsbetting. So for that reason I do hedge and find arbs. maybe even more than necessary.

It obviously wouldn't kill me if I let it ride and one of the females won because I'd still be up $315 for the season, keeping in mind I only would have risked $270, any season over 100% return I consider ok. If he won then I'm talking almost 300% return which is what I consider a great season, and along the lines of what I did for America's got talent, American Idol, and last years DWTS.

If I do chicken out and decide on a hedge I like your idea of the Marie hedge llabb. I'm back and forth with her chances of winning, with the fan base she has. Can anyone think of a reality show in which someone like her has actually won though? Sanjaya made it like 3 weeks further than he should have but he wasn't a threat to win though, Kendra Wilkinson made it all the way to the final 2 in mtv's rap challenge but in the end she didn't win, people like Master P. have been carried by fan vote in DTWS but a good dancer has always won.
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  #32  
Old 11-27-2007, 01:09 AM
stereoman stereoman is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Hmmm. The odds at Matchbook:

Will Helio win? Yes -130, No -150
Will Marie win? Yes +1200, No n/a
Will Melanie win? Yes -760, No -138

Mel looks ominous to win but how crazy will Marie's fans attack the phonelines!?
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  #33  
Old 11-27-2007, 01:26 AM
darko3131 darko3131 is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm. The odds at Matchbook:

Will Helio win? Yes -130, No -150
Will Marie win? Yes +1200, No n/a
Will Melanie win? Yes -760, No -138

Mel looks ominous to win but how crazy will Marie's fans attack the phonelines!?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm assuming those odds went up after the show ended tonight because Marie was awful. I wouldn't bet on Marie at any odds, she really did have a chance if she posted similar scores to the other two but after that showing forget it. Thank god I didn't bite on betting anything on Marie before the show.

It's going to be very close between Helio and Mel. the -760 odds on Mel winning are crazy though, if her no odds went anywhere close to that, I'd say there is big value. I'm just glad I got Helio when I did.
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  #34  
Old 11-27-2007, 01:43 AM
stereoman stereoman is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Yeah, they're the odds as they are now (any bookie would surely be more than a little foolhardy to issue odds so quickly after the first show).

Before they closed, Bodog saw some movement with Mel 7/5, Helio 5/6 and Marie 9/5.

I'm rooting for a Helio win as much as you are, darko.
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  #35  
Old 11-27-2007, 02:53 AM
darko3131 darko3131 is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

I just found out that voting online is open until noon eastern tomorrow. I guess since its the finale they leave voting open for 16 hours like that.

This is really a neck-and-neck drag race if you will between Helio and Mel, so if anyone pulling for Helio or wanting to help some of us out who are betting on him head over to abc.com and create some accounts. you get 5 votes per account so I figure if I can create 20 before I go to bed thats 100 votes which could go a long way.
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  #36  
Old 11-27-2007, 11:57 PM
4Tay 4Tay is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Good call on Helio early on.
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  #37  
Old 11-28-2007, 12:14 AM
stereoman stereoman is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

100% record throughout. You can't get better than that. Big props to darko. </applause>
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  #38  
Old 11-28-2007, 03:03 AM
darko3131 darko3131 is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

Victory! I'm not going to lie though I was sweating that last 5 minutes out. Mostly because Mel had a higher score and people on matchbook seemed to make her the favorite either because of the scores or some online voting stuff that favored Mel. In the end my horse came through, I don't think he was quite as good as Apolo was with Julianne but Helio did a great job.

All in all great season betting wise, I hope I convinced some of you to bet on Helio before the season started like I did. If so, your welcome.

Looking forward to the board for American Idol in Jan. I understand that AI is the biggest event for entertainment betting. I was on Jordin Sparks from day 1 last year so I'll see if I can do it again. I'd really like to bet AI on matchbook this year so hopefully they run a free money promo code or something by then, if they do someone please give me a heads up because I know I can't deposit there.
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  #39  
Old 11-30-2007, 02:09 AM
metsandfinsfan metsandfinsfan is offline
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Default Re: Dancing With the Stars 5

julianne is so hot ... didnt matter who her partner was
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