2Pair - Can i call this shove ? NL25

[TheBad]

Stats where like 22/8, don´t remember exactly. I have been
playing very tight.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($15.50)
Button ($28.10)
SB ($25)
BB ($25)
UTG ($31.85)
UTG+1 ($68.45)
<font color="#C00000">MP1 ($29.60)</font>
MP2 ($25.05)
<font color="#C00000">Hero ($31.15)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP1 calls $0.25, MP2 calls $0.25, Hero calls $0.25, CO calls $0.25, Button calls $0.25, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB checks.

Flop: ($1.85) 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets $0.25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, CO folds, Button folds, BB folds, UTG calls $1.50, MP1 calls $1.50, MP2 folds.

Turn: ($6.60) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $4.5</font>, UTG folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $27.85</font>, Hero ??????


Usually i fold PF, but the table was loose and i was card dead. Call or fold river ?

[LearningCurve]

I suspect he has a set and was hoping to have more people put money into the pot before he made his move. I fold.

[AllTheCheese]

Raise more on the flop. You're beat almost undoubtedly, but you have 13 outs to make the nuts (unless he has A8). It's $23 more to call and there's $6.50+$4.50+$28=$39 in the pot. So you need to be like 36% here and if you're beat (which you will be most of the time), you'll be 29% to win. I think it's close enough that you can gambool.

[Brimstead]

i fold... set or possibly 67... A8 even has u beat... hard to tell how many outs u have here...

[AllTheCheese]

Yeah but is it really impossible for this to be combo draw with hearts or lower two-pair? Unlikely, I agree, but really we don't have to have the best hand very often to call here.

[CaptVimes]

Reraise bigger on the flop. I treat villians mini-bet like a check and raise the size of the pot around 2.00.

I think you can fold this turn to the shove. Villain really likes his hand and this is a stack-a-donk line with a set a lot here. What was villain's post flop agg?

I think Cheese makes some valid points, especially about this maybe being a heart flush draw. Prolly still fold cause I'm weak tight though.

[random50]

6(!) players saw the flop. MP1 has 67, a set or A 8 far too often to call IMO.

[toymach776]

Hows this for villains range?
55-44,A8s,76s,A8o,76o

-
5,202,726 games 28.504 secs 182,526 games/sec

Board: 5h Ah 8c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 28.411% 28.41% 00.00% 1478310 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 71.589% 71.60% 00.00% 3725064 0.00 { 55-44, 76s, 76o }


---



---
4,219,994 games 38.016 secs 111,005 games/sec

Board: 5h Ah 8c 4c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.646% 27.65% 00.00% 1166693 0.00 { Ac5c }
Hand 1: 72.355% 72.36% 00.00% 3053514 0.00 { 55-44, A8s, 76s, A8o, 76o }


With either range you are about 28%. Youre not getting the right price. Fold. I guess that we could redo this and ad a flush draw to his range, but I really dont think its that likely here.

[ActionStan]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise more on the flop. You're beat almost undoubtedly, but you have 13 outs to make the nuts (unless he has A8). It's $23 more to call and there's $6.50+$4.50+$28=$39 in the pot. So you need to be like 36% here and if you're beat (which you will be most of the time), you'll be 29% to win. I think it's close enough that you can gambool.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would put more money in the pot on the flop and turn so that this decision is easier. But now that you're here,

Gaammmboooool!!!!

If it's at all close like this, I would never fold with a draw to the nut flush and second FH. His most likely set is 44, so your A, 5 and all of your club outs are in play. You have 30% equity in the pot most of the time if you are behind (which is likely more often than not), he's going to occasionally show up with A4, 45, 8h9h, 8hTh and a few other things you crush, and he's going to bluff a non-zero percentage of the time. You have plenty of equity to be all-in there. Plus, gambling is fun.

[olliejen]

fold.

against sets, a bigger 2 pair, you're nearly a 3:1 dog. 67 is a sometimes'ish limp from his position, but feasible. Even if we add in a drawing hand like K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] your equity doesn't rise enough to make the call.

If you can add A4 to his range, you're about a 60:40 dog, making the call close. But not clearly profitable...