USD - Euro

[Trix]

The US Dollar is pretty much at an all time low for the last 30 years or so. Atleast compared to the Euro.
Any idea which way things will go in the next year or two ?

[mmctrab]

If I had to guess, I'd say the dollar keeps falling against the euro for another few years because I think we're headed for a recession here in the US and the Fed will need to keep lowering interest rates. But, it's a crapshoot, and I wouldn't want to bet money on it.

[Mort10]

I'm not so sure the Fed can cut rates much more. It might just be me, but I really doubt that inflation is not a bigger problem than they admit and it is definitively going to be a big problem if they cut again.

[dazraf69]

The dollar being at an all time low is hurting a lot of other nations such as the European Union. Their high Euro is having negative impacts on their economy. So I would imagine that the dollar will NOT drop for the next couple years compared to the Euro.

[mmctrab]

[ QUOTE ]
The dollar being at an all time low is hurting a lot of other nations such as the European Union. Their high Euro is having negative impacts on their economy. So I would imagine that the dollar will NOT drop for the next couple years compared to the Euro.

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Unless you think the EU is going to start aggressively cutting interest rates, or the Fed is going to start raising rates I'd say the chances of the dollar falling farther are quite good especially if the economy here keeps weakening and other countries start diversifying out of dollars.

[Mort10]

Do you guys think outside political pressure from will have any effect on the Feds decision for the interest rates in the next year or so? There is already a good amount of pressure coming from Europe and the middle east. Will the Fed disregard this completely?

[mmctrab]

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Do you guys think outside political pressure from will have any effect on the Feds decision for the interest rates in the next year or so? There is already a good amount of pressure coming from Europe and the middle east. Will the Fed disregard this completely?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would say yes to your question since the Fed will be preoccupied with trying to prevent a serious economic collapse. Other countries complaining about the falling dollar will not be a major part of the decision making process.

[Zygote]

[ QUOTE ]
The dollar being at an all time low is hurting a lot of other nations such as the European Union. Their high Euro is having negative impacts on their economy. So I would imagine that the dollar will NOT drop for the next couple years compared to the Euro.

[/ QUOTE ]

if someone started to offer their goods to me at a cheaper price i guess i would refuse since thats bad for my economy?

[dazraf69]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The dollar being at an all time low is hurting a lot of other nations such as the European Union. Their high Euro is having negative impacts on their economy. So I would imagine that the dollar will NOT drop for the next couple years compared to the Euro.

[/ QUOTE ]

if someone started to offer their goods to me at a cheaper price i guess i would refuse since thats bad for my economy?

[/ QUOTE ]

I simply don't think the US dollar will drop significantly against the Euro. I realize all the arguments against my hypothesis, but I still feel that some action will be taken. I still believe the dropping dollar was led by the US for compensation of our large trade deficit and there is more control of US currency than most like to believe. This is not to imply the dollar will go up in value either. Simply speculation though, hence the reason I do not trade currencies. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Zygote]

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I still believe the dropping dollar was led by the US for compensation of our large trade deficit and there is more control of US currency than most like to believe.

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what do you mean by led by the US and what do you mean by control of US currency?