10/20 vs good reg

[Trix]

4 Handed 10/20 game, I open 3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] for 70 in the CO with 1990 total, good regular on the lag side of tag but not too far out of line preflop who mixes it up well calls, SB with 2K folds, BB with 3K folds.

Flop 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], I lead 140, he makes it 420 ?

Messed around with pokerstove and assuming this call range AdAh,AhAs,55-44,22,AhJh,AhTh,Ah9h or a similar one and that my math isn´t wrong, I need about 34% FE to shove profitably. Thoughts ?

[Ship Ship McGipp]

i would shove here like 90% of the time

[Trix]

I´m curious, what hands do you think he may be raise-folding here ?

[MATT111]

It`s quite likely he is messing with you on this board with a lot of holdings.

[Ship Ship McGipp]

it's adecent enough board to bluff raise

[FiSheYe]

You are a favourite against all draws, he almost never has a straight and barely a set. Most PPL wouldn't call 99-AA here pf so he either has a hand you are favourite against or a Pocketpair bigger than yours which he might fold facing so much heat. Even against an overpair you are usually no worse than 40/60 combined with the good amount of FE you have here this becomes a rather easy shove imho.

[king_of_drafts]

shove it in

[AcidKnight]

[ QUOTE ]
You are a favourite against all draws, he almost never has a straight and barely a set. Most PPL wouldn't call 99-AA here pf so he either has a hand you are favourite against or a Pocketpair bigger than yours which he might fold facing so much heat. Even against an overpair you are usually no worse than 40/60 combined with the good amount of FE you have here this becomes a rather easy shove imho.

[/ QUOTE ]