What Is Gobboboy Thinking Here?

[FakeKramer]

I am reading through gobboboy's hand history from his 3rd place finish in last night's $45k on Stars. This hand sorta puzzled me. First off, I've noticed he very rarely folds any pocket pair preflop. In most cases up to this hand, I had been generally okay with that, but I am really having a hard time understanding the logic behind making this call.

Obviously he's a very good player, so I'm not preaching saying he played this wrong. I simply would like to hear from him (or someone of higher skill) the rationale behind calling this all in. Thanks!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (7 handed) converter

BB (t387032)
UTG (t38969)
MP1 (t100526)
Gobboboy (t193820)
CO (t108024)
Button (t230912)
SB (t300348)

Preflop: Gobboboy is MP2 with 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t38569</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Gobboboy calls t38569

[mlagoo]

blame sirio [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Jurollo]

He has a deceptive hand that can fire against an OOP raiser on almost any flop and if he flops the 2 he can stack the villian. I do things like this all the time, you can flop monsters and on a low flop you can also represent a big pair or big draw.
~Justin

Edit: Didnt see villian was all-in. In this case I raise too, but this is pretty much a standard fold. This guys range is HUGE but no matter what he has gobbo is at BEST a flip. Pretty clear mistake considering there are lots of players to act too and if he gets reraised he has to lay it down.

[ZBTHorton]

I take a ton of coin flips, as I know Justin and Gobbo do as well.

I don't mind it at all.

[bestcellar]

you have to look at this in terms of equity. UTG is pushing with literally any two, as the blinds are about to gobble him up. Gobbo is calling with a pair and is almost certainly a coinflip/ahead. I think if you do the math in terms of guaranteed prize money and the equity percentages if won or lost, this call actually makes a lot of sense.

75% UTG is pushing with a non-pair - Gobbo is a 50/50
20% UTG is pushing with an overpair - Gobbo is a 20/80
5% UTG is pushing with x2 non-pair. - Gobbo is a 75/25

(these are rough estimates)

If gobbo wins, he'll have 231k and be in second place
If gobbo loses, he'll have 156k and be in fourth place

(.75)(.50)231k + (.75)(.50)156k + (.20)(.20)231k + (.80)(.20)156k + (.05)(.75)231k + (.05)(.25)156k =

86.625K + 58.5k + 9.24k + 24.96k + 8.66k + 1.95k = 189.935k equity in the hand. Add to this the fact that Gobbo is guaranteed a larger prize if he knocks out 7th place and that is an easy call.

[censored], I don't even know if I did this rigth [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[TomHimself]

i think its a mistake. i might fold but i think rr allin is superior to just calling

[Ansky]

I think its a poor call.

[illini43]

[ QUOTE ]
I think its a poor call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can see the rationale behind Jurollo's (and gobboboy's) thinking here. But ~ 40K with your stack size seems like a lot to risk on what at best is a coinflip.

[gobboboy]

No, I don't like folding pairs preflop when the chips required are not very much. Taking a flip at this point is not very bad at all to me, and by calling I can get away if someone pushes. I thought about isolating, but:

1) If I flop a set and they have a good hand I can more than double here.
2) A call here is pretty scary too. The bb isn't priced in to call since it's an okay sized push, so I'm not worried about someone with 73s outflopping me.
3) Isolating can put me in a world of hurt if someone wakes up with JJ+.

[FakeKramer]

[ QUOTE ]
The bb isn't priced in to call since it's an okay sized push

[/ QUOTE ]That's the logic I would have used to fold the 22 if I were you in this spot. The fact that it's an okay sized push indicates he might very likely have an overpair.