NL10: Top 2 on low pr'd bd facing all in River

[oakrdrzfan]

Villain was very loose passive. He suddenly woke up on the river and went all in with only a $3 pot. Fold or Call?


Party Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.05/$0.10 Blinds - 9 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $10.87
BB: $16.98
UTG: $2.11
UTG+1: $11.45
MP1: $1.70
MP2: $1.90
MP3: $7.89
CO: $20.00
Hero (BTN): $18.13

Reads: <font color="blue">Villain is very loose passive 58/2/1.18AF over 55 hands</font>

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (9 Players)
4 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, CO calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: ($0.45) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 Players)
BB checks, MP3 checks, CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $0.30</font>, 2 folds, CO calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.05) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
CO checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $1.00</font>, CO calls $1.00

River: ($3.05) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">CO bets all-in for $18.60</font>, Hero....folds/calls????

[LearningCurve]

That's certainly not a statistically significant sample size but I'm folding anyhow. Not sure exactly what he has (slowplayed trips perhaps), but I'm not willing to play for stacks here.

[bottomset]

its close, I think I lean towards fold but Im not sure

if it wasn't as deep I'd call fast

[CaptVimes]

The passive thing and, like btmset said, the fact that your so deep probably lead me to fold this. Your two pair is basically a bluff catcher, although this certainly seems like a bluff type of bet.

[oakrdrzfan]

My first instinct was to fold fast. I then paused and thought why would he try to be blowing me off this hand. The more I thought, the more I wanted to call and then my curiosity got the best of me. I called and he flopped over a 6 with some other trash card. I should have went with my instinct and folded to the passive player.

What makes the hand even more interesting is that I made a play on the flop with just overcards and then hit the turn and river for top 2. Interesting chain of events that cost me a pretty decent stack at the time.

Thanks for the help!

[jhill3535]

At NL25 and below huge overbets on the river are usually the nuts or very close. People just think it looks like a bluff and it gets looked up alot. If you have the nuts or at least a definate winning hand that you are not sure how much to bet, overbetting allin is often correct.

If the pot is 1/4 of your stack, then the allin shove only has to be called 1/4 the number of times that a Pot sized bet as to be called to be equally as profitable. If a villian will call a pot sized bet 50% of the time and an allin shove of 4x pot only 20% of the time, then it is much more profitable to overbet allin.

[Teddie]

His low AF is a huge give away, even over this small a sample.

[LearningCurve]

[ QUOTE ]
At NL25 and below huge overbets on the river are usually the nuts or very close. People just think it looks like a bluff and it gets looked up alot. If you have the nuts or at least a definate winning hand that you are not sure how much to bet, overbetting allin is often correct.


[/ QUOTE ]

QFT

I have looked this up more times than I care to admit as I would NEVER push here. I'm generally a 1/2 pot bet kind of person. However, I really should "go for it" more often as people (me included) seem to often call thinking "Yeah, right...you expect me to believe THAT?!"

Villain obviously slowplayed the trips hoping for just such a river to hit OP. He also figured it would be difficult to believe anyone making such a huge river overbet really wanted to be called. Unlucky river for OP. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]