up against the dreaded call-reraise

[mike l.]

stars of the post: guy who i dont know who fits the middle aged white guy playing hooky from work stereotype (loose, mainly passive) is in the bb. full time old man player who's not very good but maybe grinds out something each month and is certainly tight if anything is in the sb, btw he thinks im fos. not that he knows how to play back much but that is what he thinks anyway. im around the cutoff.

temporarily 6 handed, i raise K9o, sb 3 bets, bb calls, i call.

the flop is KdQd6s. sb bets, bb calls, i raise, sb 3 bets, bb calls, i call.

the turn is 9s. sb bets, bb calls, i raise, sb calls, bb raises, i call, sb calls.

the river is 2s. anyone have a plan for me and my two pair if bb bets? and if he checks?

[private joker]

You're toast. You had a 4-outer at best on the river and missed it. In my experience, middle-aged white guys who call/3-bet this turn have JT 80% of the time and 66/QQ 17% of the time (your guess is as good as mine for the other 3%).

[Clover362]

Looks like bb has j10. So I check behind him and I probably call because Mabey he got out of line with ak.

[mike l.]

what if the river is checked to me pj?

[emerson]

[ QUOTE ]
stars of the post: guy who i dont know who fits the middle aged white guy playing hooky from work stereotype (loose, mainly passive) is in the bb. full time old man player who's not very good but maybe grinds out something each month and is certainly tight if anything is in the sb, btw he thinks im fos. not that he knows how to play back much but that is what he thinks anyway. im around the cutoff.

temporarily 6 handed, i raise K9o, sb 3 bets, bb calls, i call.

the flop is KdQd6s. sb bets, bb calls, i raise, sb 3 bets, bb calls, i call.

the turn is 9s. sb bets, bb calls, i raise, sb calls, bb raises, i call, sb calls.

the river is 2s. anyone have a plan for me and my two pair if bb bets? and if he checks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Call or check behind. A timid player with trips or a straight might check when a third suited hits, even if it was runner-runner. Check doesn't mean they're weak, just that they're cowardly... but not cowardly enough to fold in a huge pot with trips or better.

[private joker]

[ QUOTE ]
what if the river is checked to me pj?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check it back. He's JT paranoid/afraid of the flush that got there for some reason. No value in betting because you're not a favorite when called.

[surfdoc]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what if the river is checked to me pj?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check it back. He's JT paranoid/afraid of the flush that got there for some reason. No value in betting because you're not a favorite when called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I agree with this. His line is so indicative of a monster or some random bluff that betting won't be right without an additional read. This wasn't that dude in the 2 seat when I was sweating was it?

[andyfox]

"the middle aged white guy playing hooky from work stereotype"

I resemble that remark.

"old man player who's not very good but maybe grinds out something each month and is certainly tight if anything"

I kind of resemble that remark.

I'd call the river if he bets, getting 19:1 and check behind if he checks. SB looks like A-K but BB sounds like the kind (I should know) who is scared he might have gotten flushed.

[ssmallz]

Not sure I like your flop raise. The pf 3 bettor has a hand thats WA/WB most of the time and you're likely to get 3 bet a whole lot when drawing to 3 outs.

I don't think you should call a bet from middle aged white guy but if it gets checked to you I think you might have a value bet against sb

[Bad Lobster]

[ QUOTE ]
You're toast. You had a 4-outer at best on the river and missed it. In my experience, middle-aged white guys who call/3-bet this turn have JT 80% of the time and 66/QQ 17% of the time (your guess is as good as mine for the other 3%).

[/ QUOTE ]

I concur - you're toast and it could cost you still more money. This looks to me like a time when even 19-1 pot odds aren't worth it. If one opponent is faking, the other one isn't.

This hand is superficially like a hand from last week (32 bets in the pot before the flop, 3 clubs on the flop) with a huge pot and 3 people in at the end, but it feels very different to me. That time, there was a lot of loose play up front and everyone had an obvious incentive to protect a weak hand. This time, all three of you have shown nothing but strength. Not just once, but repeatedly.

Your opponents know that too, and they also know that the chances of a bluff succeeding go down exponentially as the number of opponents goes up. If it's unlikely that 2 out of 2 opponents don't have a hand, it's even more unlikely that one of them will bluff into 2 strong opponents. To give some hypothetical numbers, if there's a 1 in 5 chance you have one opponent beat, the chance you can beat both of them is 1 in 25. Fold to a bet.