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Re: A2 shoving
are you kidding?
you're risking the tournament to win 225t and 4 players behind you? i think you have about 22.5% against 4 players, 57% against one random and 30% against a resonable call (JJ+,ATs+,AQo+). ok, lets say you opponents are resonable players and will call with (KK+,AKs+,AKo+...5%). because you have 4 opponents the chance of beeing called is about 20%. EV=0.80*225t+0.20*[0.30*1170t-0.70*1170t]=+86t now lets say you opponents arent that tight and call you with a higher handrange (66+,A9s+,KQs,ATo+,KQo...10%), what gives you a higher chance of winning by beeing an 35:65 underdog, but increases the chance of beeing called to about 40% and i would say for getting two callers also, but dont count this possibility now. EV=0.60*225t+0.40*[0.35*1170-0.65*1170]=-5t however with a stack about 8BB its a push-or-fold decision. if you fold you have 2 more hands before you're the bb and - as long as the blinds don't increase - you have +5 hands with 6.5BB (that means you have 7 hands with a nice-double-up-stack; and you have 10% for 66+,A8s+,A8o+. that means you'll hit one of this hands in 66% until you are the next bb. 66+, A8x+ has an about 20-25% higher chance against the above hands to win on a showdown compared to A2s). i would wait here for some better hands, because A2s is a very vulnerable hand. if you had less then 6BB it wouldnt be a question of pushing here. |
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