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#1
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Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
I think you SHOULD fold here (although dont think I couldn't do it), he's pretty nitty, i think i have him running like 12/10 or something, and from what i've seen has generally shown down nut like hands. This is more likely 33-55 than a draw, or even 67 (i'm not sure he would cold call that).
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#2
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Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
When I used to play that nitty at fr this was a set 100% of the time.
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#3
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Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
I still say fold, because of villain specifically. However, pokerstove says we are good to get the money in here.
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 24,750 games 0.005 secs 4,950,000 games/sec Board: 3s 4s 5d Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 50.448% 48.73% 01.72% 12060 426.00 { AdAh } Hand 1: 49.552% 47.83% 01.72% 11838 426.00 { QQ-JJ, 55-33, 76s } |
#4
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Re: [NL200] AA with coldcalling small blind => time to lay`em down ?
So, villain never has the NFD here?
Because the NFD has, like, a billion outs vs. even KK. You'd be crazy not to play the NFD aggressively. I might also include 66 as it has 10 outs vs. overpairs. Hard for me to believe that his range is not more like this: Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 29,700 games 0.001 secs 29,700,000 games/sec Board: 3s 4s 5d Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 59.409% 57.31% 02.10% 17022 622.50 { AdAh } Hand 1: 40.591% 38.49% 02.10% 11433 622.50 { QQ-JJ, 66-33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs } And you can't give him a straight here. If he can have 7s6s, than he can have all kinds of other flush draws+overs as well and that increases his range and our equity. He may be nitty, but he's probably not going to play a big draw passively. And you have more equity than usual vs. a set here with your gutshot. If his range is pure PPs pre-flop and he isn't going to give you action with JJ/QQ then check behind on the flop. Hard to believe anyone is that nitty, but w/e, you guys know him. |
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