4 bet semi bluff vs. Esfandiari

[Ansky]

Aruba main event. I didn't want to post this hand originally, but I thought of a way to make it decent I think.

Villain in this hand is Antonio Esfandiari. He has been playing fairly tight overall, but against me has been pretty loose and aggro. I have been raising a lot and playing tons of pots and he has definitely take notice. Most players at the table are commenting on how crazy I am for someone who looks 12 years old.

Some background hands.

A few rounds earlier, 100/200 blinds, I open to 600 w/ about 8k behind, with ATo from the hijack. Twin-Caracas calls with about 10k behind in the CO, and Antonio raises to 2400 from the button. We both fold and Antonio tables 75 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Another hand I raise in EP w/ KQh, Antonio calls and I check/fold on a 489 2 tone board. Another hand a few rounds before, I have 53c in the BB. Twin limps utg, sb completes, I check. Flop is A48 2 tone (not my suit). ck, ck, twin bets 750, sb folds, I raise to 2200, he calls. Turn is a 7o, I shove for 6600 and twin folds. I show, and he gets pissed. Antonio sees the hand and chuckles a bit.

On to the hand.

I have T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Folds to me in MP2 I beleive, I open to 600 at 100/200 no ante with about 7800 total, twin folds and Antonio raises to 2000. Folds back to me... Antonio has about 15k total.


As far as I could tell Antonio probably felt he could give up slight edges, but nothing like some of the other live pros do (ie Hellmuth). He definitely respected my game, but thought I was a bit of a psycho LAG probably.

This may be incorrect, but at the time I beleived that Antonio was expecting me to fold or shove, and almost never call. Also, I think Antonio thinks I'm a satellite qualifier, and that I'm probably opening about 40% of hands here.

1) What is the best hand that you expect Antonio to fold if I shove?

2) How often do you expect Antonio to be raising me with air again?

3) Do you expect Antonio to feel pot comitted with Ax?

Results and my thoughts to follow.

[registrar]

Is he in the blinds?

[betgo]

I don't know the answers to all your questions, but I would push with this hand and situation too.

[mornelth]

This is WAAAAAY over my level of the game,so take this with a BIG grain of salt...

Given your image and the fact that he had showed you cr@p after re-raising you before - I think he's calling your shove here like almost always and he's not making a pot-odds mistake with his call, like, ever. You're probably better off with a stop-n-go if you're looking for some FE.

I think his range may be something like A8o+,A5s+,any pair, all suited broadways, most unsuited broadways... throw in a couple of suited connectors for balance. You're 40% dog against this range and with the push you're paying 7,200 for 8,100 pot... I do not think he folds often enough to make up the deficit when you are called...

That said, JTs

[FortunaMaximus]

#1, and knowing next to nothing about his game, only that he is aggro and a successful cash-game player also who's observant of the math, you'd get him to fold a lot of Broadway trash if you shove. He's gonna realize he's behind your range.

You might also get him to lay down 22-66 to an outright shove as opposed to a 3-bet. but rarely anything over that, 'cause he has you covered and probably understands cEV considerations in tournaments as well as you do.

Doubt he'll feel overcommitted with Ax, but depends on kicker. A8 to start probably, maybe A9 to be certain he's flipping a lot of pairs from a psycho LAG.

If his aggression is in his post-flop play instead of PF, don't expect him to be 4-betting with air a lot here, certainly not to put you AI. Your image is that you're willing to risk a significant portion of your stack on a bluff. Certainly not nearly enough times to justify shoving JTs over his holdings.

Be interesting to see how the hand played out, But PF's pretty standard from my POV.

[nath]

I like it, but I can't quite answer your questions yet. I think if he sees you at loose a light reraise is extremely likely.
Here's something: How often did he just flat call vs. reraising preflop against the looser players at the table?

[betgo]

I like the play because you have a good semibluffing hand. You are flipping against Ax and 22-TT. You are about a 2-1 dog against KQ, AK, AJ, JJ, and QQ. You are about a 4-1 dog AA and KK.

Esfandiari is getting pot odds, so he probably calls with a lot of stuff, but has to fold a pure resteal. I like the push better if you had a few more chips. Esfandiari is a little pot committed.

You are probably close to even with his reraising raise, so might as well push.

I also don't mind a flat call and see a flop with this hand if not a straight SNG.

[durrrr]

hes calling tight... like 99/AQ i'd be surprised to see call (they might if he has a 'read' or w/e). I like the shove w/ given info...

[bestcellar]

How many times have you re-re-raised preflop prior to this hand?

[mornelth]

Is Esfandiary wearing a long-sleeve shirt or jacket?... [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]