200NL Raise size on the river

adamw005 · #1 11-13-2007, 09:45 PM

I have a note on the guy that says 'donk bet small w/ Q9 on Q52r, bet small on blank turn and river' He is running at 51/2.5/1.75 over 40 hands with a bet river of 43%.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|saw showdown

Button ($221.30)
SB ($95.85)
BB ($402.75)
UTG ($152.90)
Hero ($214.85)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, BB calls $4.

Flop: ($13) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $6, Hero calls $6.

Turn: ($25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $14, Hero calls $14.

River: ($53) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB bets $40, $188 or so effective stacks

I think flop and turn can both be played differently but I'm most interested in river. What's his range and optimal raise size?

Redgrape · #2 11-13-2007, 10:22 PM

just shove it in ldo.

agnoke10 · #3 11-13-2007, 11:16 PM

minraise LOL?

ofishstix · #4 11-13-2007, 11:22 PM

133

orange · #5 11-13-2007, 11:23 PM

i think his calling range for $100 = calling range for a shove.

nazahl · #6 11-13-2007, 11:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i think his calling range for $100 = calling range for a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

ding

pineapple888 · #7 11-13-2007, 11:37 PM

I just minraise unless I have a sense that he's a spewtard. It seems from your read that he just likes to bet his top pairs and you're gonna lose him most of the time with a big raise, and it's pretty rare he's gonna have a worse flush or top 2 or something.

But I could also find a shove. Kinda depends on my instincts at the moment.

Those are the two choices, don't see any reason to do anything else.

SpleenLSD · #8 11-14-2007, 12:18 AM

You made a wicked float and hit. You really put him on KxHearts? Get it in.

pineapple888 · #9 11-14-2007, 02:08 AM

[ QUOTE ]
You made a wicked float and hit. You really put him on KxHearts? Get it in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, the issue isn't whether we're ahead or not. The issue is how big a raise Villain will call.

adamw005 · #10 11-14-2007, 05:20 AM

[ QUOTE ]
i think his calling range for $100 = calling range for a shove.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this.
And I agree with pineapple when you say it's between minraising and shoving.

I think with my note on him and his pretty strong looking bet on the river his range is something like 98, A9, Axdd, A3, A2, 23, flush, sets, whiffed draw, pure bluff. How's this?

If we say he will call our minraise with 98, A9, Axdd, A3, A2, 23, flush, and sets.
And he will call our push with just flushes and sets.

I count 63 hands combos he will call our minraise with and 19 hand combos he will call our push with.

And since our push has to work about 28% of the time to be as profitable as a minraise (40/144). Pushing seems more profitable because he will call a push 30% as often as a minraise (19/63). Also, if we start taking hands out of his minraise calling range (like 23,Axdd) it leans even more towards a push. But, the less he donk bets with hands like 35hh the less hands he can call a push with.

I don't really know how useful any of this analysis is. With out any better reads on him it's hard to weight his hand range.

Here are the hand ranges i used:
Calls push: 9c9d,9c9s,9d9s,8c8d,8c8s,8d8s,3c3h,3c3s,3h3s,2c2h, 2c2s,2h2s,KhTh,7h6h,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h,5h3h,4h3h

Calls minraise: 9c9d,9c9s,9d9s,8c8d,8c8s,8d8s,3c3h,3c3s,3h3s,2c2h, 2c2s,2h2s,KhTh,7h6h,6h5h,6h4h,5h4h,5h3h,4h3h
+
AdKd,AdQd,AdJd,AdTd,Ac9c,Ad9d,As9s,Ad8d,Ad7d,Ad6d, Ad5d,Ad4d,9c8c,9d8d,9s8s,3c2c,3h2h,3s2s,Ac9d,Ac9s, Ad9c,Ad9s,As9c,As9d,Ac3h,Ac3s,Ad3c,Ad3h,Ad3s,As3c, As3h,Ac2h,Ac2s,Ad2c,Ad2h,Ad2s,As2c,As2h,9c8d,9c8s, 9d8c,9d8s,9s8c,9s8d

All in all it's pretty close and I think that I would probably minraise against a donk that is calling a minraised too wide. And maybe shove against a regular so that I can bluff in spots like this? I'm really exhausted and probably screwed some stuff up, but I'd really like to hear some thoughts on this.