Fat stack, middle pocket pair, late stage

[registrar]

20/180. No reads on raiser. I don't think I've done anything at this table.

In a more general sense, what sort of things are we doing with our stack with 26 left?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t200/t400
(Ante: t25)
7 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: t3815
UTG+1: t5565
Hero: t14249
CO: t8880
Button: t2235
SB: t9852
BB: t5114

Pre-flop: (7 players) Hero is MP1 with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to t1200</font>, Hero?

[aplunk]

push

[kurtkatt]

im folding this pretty quickly, is this bad?

[woohoo88]

Am I being a nit in thinking this is a fold especially given UTG+1's stack?

[Bakes]

i think a fold is fine

[JARID]

really?

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.911% 60.12% 00.79% 549751872 7200624.00 { 66+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 39.089% 38.30% 00.79% 350217216 7200624.00 { 77 }

[Spee]

Interesting situation. On the surface, it seems like a push or fold situation, and you can only call if you are prepared to overcall a reraise. Fortunately, your stack size may allow you that luxury.

Having the table covered and that it is a short table with only 4 to act left makes it hard to lay down this pair. I don't know that you mind if other players call or lay down. You're playing for your pair to be ahead head up or for set value multiway.

The thing is, when you go in, button is priced in with almost any kind of hand. Button going in quite likely prices in the BB as well. Then you have Co and SB to worry about.

If CO and/or SB get involved and UTG+1 calls or jams, then the chances of your 77 being good after the flop are substantially reduced.

All that said, I think you call with the plan of calling anything except a CO push or a SB push. I think you can risk confrontation with anyone except those two at this point in the tournament.

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
really?

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.911% 60.12% 00.79% 549751872 7200624.00 { 66+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 39.089% 38.30% 00.79% 350217216 7200624.00 { 77 }

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, but does he call with this range? Or does he just fold like a little girl because it's near the money bubble in a 20/180?

I suspect(ed) that pushing, or raising, is or might be marginally +EV. My real question is whether we should take this close gamble at this stage. If raising/pushing is marginally +EV, is that enough to make this the best play? 77 might be too close, from MP, but presumably pushing 88 is =EV here?

[TheFoxNL]

i would just double raise it here to 2400
it puts the button all in

pot is 4375 and button needs to put in 2235 to call
wich is little less then 2-1
this would be a bad call with any marginal hand on the bubble and it would be bad for anybody else to call except the initial raiser
but lets say he does call
then the pot is 6610 with 2400 to call for anybody else wich pretty much commits the rest of the players

but when the CO calls this raise theres a little bit more in the pot and Button would put in with 3-1 odds wich would be alright then everybody else would get 4-1

either way it kinda depends on the Button
anybody calling as first with 2-1 is doing somehting criminal without a premium hand

but seeing your on the bubble i doubt anybody except the button would call without a premium hand

so just raise to 2400 here and call a push from UTG

[registrar]

[ QUOTE ]
im folding this pretty quickly, is this bad?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I folded. I was terribly card dead the whole way and was using my stack rather than my cards to win chips. When I switched to this table, I was no longer sure how to use it because most of my FE moves would be against players who were priced in. If OR was a little deeper, I'd like a push a lot more.