I Follow Him to Serve My Turn Upon Him

[0evg0]

I don't think a set plays like this very often, and two-pair just isn't likely with this board. That leaves flushes and 1-pair hands. More attention is being devoted to the flushes because maximize profit against those is far more important than maximizing versus 1-pair as the frequency of the two makes it pretty clear.

Anyway, I would definitely throw QhJx/KhJx and probably QhTx/KhTx in there as well. That's why I think raising to 2800 is pretty money. It makes him think he's getting correct odds, it doesn't scare him off, it looks like we are trying to not commit ourselves, etc.

[betgo]

If villain has a low flush, there are 12 outs that pair the board, and another 5 (subtracting 4 hearts from both of you) that make a 4 flush board. So 17/44 of 39% of the time a card that makes a smaller flush uncomfortable hits. If the board pairs, it will make both players uncomfortable if he has a flush.

If he has a flush, he is going to have a hard time folding. I don't think he leads with a set, but a set calls too to draw if behind. If villain doesn't have a big hand, you won't get much action on this board anyway. So just raise to 3000 or whatever.

[woodguy]

I like a raise here.

If you are getting more action on the river if you call, then you are getting more action if you raise the turn. If you aren't getting more action when you call, then you aren't getting more action when you raise.

I like a raise because you can play for a lot more chips on the river (or he may push over your turn raise too, yummy!)

Any heart is an action killer on the river, as well as the board pairing. Get the $$$ in before these cards have the opportunity to fall.

A raise here with the nuts is not usually expected, so I think it gets the most of out of a second best hand.

I'm not sure you are getting much more out of a non-flush hand anyhow.....you may make a bit if he c/c the river, but if he has a flush, (or even a set, although I expect a set to c/r your flop bet) you have a chance to make a bunch of chips here.

I probably make it $3K to go, which is perfect for him to push over top of.

You make less off of non flush hands, and make more off of flush hands......its probably close, but I like to raise.

Regards,
Woodguy

[NoahSD]

Woodguy pretty much nailed while this absolutely has to be a raise.

In general, I'd hate raising with these stacks, but you absolutely have to in this spot because the money that you lose by calling and a heart falling (or anything else that villain perceives as a scare card, if he's a donkey) is much much greater than the money you gain by the check/crying call occasionally get on blank rivers from the hands that he'll fold to a raise here.

I'm not sure about an amount. In general with these stacks, I either want to push or bet an amount that lets me fold if I'm at the bottom of my range. I think 2500 is about right... making the pot 6.5k if BB calls and you'll have like 6k left.

[Spee]

At first I said easy call, but after thinking about it, I think this is worth a raise. A lot depends on your past interaction with him. He might fold, but the way he's played the hand, I'd say the chances are very good that you're looking at a baby flush or Jacks up. Your raise could look a lot like a steal, Add another grand and raise to about 2000 and hope that he bites.

[shaundeeb]

I instacall make it look like lone Ah or some scared overpair. Let him fire the river the stack sizes are good enough that a riverbet he feels obligated to call a river raise of 2.5times. I would expect him to VB 2-2.5k on the river blank and you can raise to 6k or so and get a call from a lot of hands.

[Yads]

[ QUOTE ]
We can't let him boat up for free here. He still might push his set or smaller flush, leading the flop did well to disguise our hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

He has a set almost never here, this looks like T4, maybe J4 for the turned 2 pair or a lower flush. I raise to 2500-3000 here. As some other people have said there are a ton of cards that may kill your action. Don't slow play the nuts.

[Foucault]

Thanks for the comments, everyone, I'm pretty sure I misplayed this one. I didn't give Villain nearly as much credit as some here, and thought he would often have one pair or a weak two pair. My thinking was that I might be able to get a crying call on a blank river from these weak hands, and while it sucks sometimes if a heart falls, I also felt I could get one more bet from a good heart on the river, whereas he probably wouldn't call a turn raise even with one pair and the K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], since his draw is not to the nuts.

In his position, he pretty much has to check-raise a set (though he really ought to lead it, a lot of people don't do that) on the flop, so I wasn't too worried about the board pairing, as he has at best four outs to a full house.

Anyway, I called, the river was a heart, and he check-folded to a bet of 1800. In retrospect, think with deep stacks and such a big hand, I need to worry more about getting paid off when he has a strong second-best hand and less about winning marginally more when he is relatively weak.

[curtains]

I would probably raise