River Bluff

[James.]

a 25/11/5 over 130 hands openraises in MP, a horrible 61/8/2.2 over 90 hands coldcalls in the CO, sb drops and i call with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the BB.

Flop(6.5sb): T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

i check, MP bets, CO calls, i call.

Turn(4.25bb): 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

i check, it checks through.

River(4.25bb): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

i bet...

[Harv72b]

My first reaction was that I hated it, until I saw how aggro the CO was. I can't imagine him checking through the turn with any pair or even a decent draw, which means that we're likely to be ahead of him. And MP can't really call your bet sandwiched in the middle with a better ace. I'm still a bit hesitant, tho, as your sample size on CO really isn't that large (enough to say he's horrible, yes, but not really enough to say he's that aggressive postflop).

[earlytimes1]

when an MP with AF of 5 checks the turn, I agree he's given up on the hand, but what worse hands is this fishy cutoff folding? is he passive postflop as well as pre; will he call with any piece, or will he drop his 2, 3 or 4 the necessary 1/5 of the time? I think when this "bluff" succeeds you have the best hand a lot.

also james, were you planning to c/r turn?

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm still a bit hesitant, tho, as your sample size on CO really isn't that large (enough to say he's horrible, yes, but not really enough to say he's that aggressive postflop).

[/ QUOTE ]

an earlier hand with CO:

he open limps in MP somewhere, i check J5o in the BB.

Flop: J78r

i check, he bets, i call.

Turn: 4 completing rainbow

i check, he bets, i checkraise, he 3bets, i call.

River: 9

i check/call.

he shows K6o for KJhigh.

one example of his idiocy.

[Harv72b]

Point taken, although actually that makes me a bit more hesitant to bet at this pot. Both because it makes his turn check thru even more suspicious (when LAGs do that it so often means a monster), and because you face the possibility of a river raise whether he's got something or not.

[Hielko]

I Like it: MP will probably fold a better ace and you have CO beat a lot.

[JJH3984]

I like it for all the reasons everyone who has liked it like it.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]

also james, were you planning to c/r turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

if CO bet i would have considered it, but given the pot size i wasn't too excited about putting in 2 big bets at that point.

[HoneyBadger]

Good value bet [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
Both because it makes his turn check thru even more suspicious (when LAGs do that it so often means a monster), and because you face the possibility of a river raise whether he's got something or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree his turn check is either a monster or complete air.

while my equity versus his range would be better if i checkraised, i think it is offset by the benefits of it not checking through.

as far as the river raise goes, say we assume he raises it 50% with the nuts and 50% as a bluff. that's basically a zero expectation situation because i win as much as i lose so it can really be disregarded. if you disagree, what do you think we could assign as reasonable %'s to his bluffing frequency? it's obviously too high.